Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 76% implied probability to UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.0-0.3%, reflecting January's flat monthly output—real GDP unchanged month-on-month per ONS data released March 13—and softening S&P Global flash PMIs for March, with the composite index dipping to 51.0 amid Middle East conflict-driven oil price shocks and inflation pressures. This positions the low-growth bucket as the clear leader, aligning with NIESR's 0.3% Q1 forecast and the OBR's March outlook for full-year growth slowing to 1.1% from 1.4% in 2025 due to cyclical headwinds. Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on March 19, citing energy uncertainties. Traders eye February monthly GDP (due mid-April) and Q1 flash estimate (late April) as key catalysts that could shift sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated0.0-0.3% 66%
0.9-1.2% 16.2%
Negative 6.7%
0.3-0.6% 6.7%
$20,689 Vol.
$20,689 Vol.
May 14, 2026
Negative
7%
0.0-0.3%
77%
0.3-0.6%
7%
0.6-0.9%
1%
0.9-1.2%
16%
1.2-1.5%
1%
1.5-1.8%
<1%
1.8%+
<1%
0.0-0.3% 66%
0.9-1.2% 16.2%
Negative 6.7%
0.3-0.6% 6.7%
$20,689 Vol.
$20,689 Vol.
May 14, 2026
Negative
$1,755 Vol.
7%
0.0-0.3%
$8,994 Vol.
77%
0.3-0.6%
$697 Vol.
7%
0.6-0.9%
$6,833 Vol.
1%
0.9-1.2%
$527 Vol.
16%
1.2-1.5%
$568 Vol.
1%
1.5-1.8%
$471 Vol.
<1%
1.8%+
$844 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 76% implied probability to UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.0-0.3%, reflecting January's flat monthly output—real GDP unchanged month-on-month per ONS data released March 13—and softening S&P Global flash PMIs for March, with the composite index dipping to 51.0 amid Middle East conflict-driven oil price shocks and inflation pressures. This positions the low-growth bucket as the clear leader, aligning with NIESR's 0.3% Q1 forecast and the OBR's March outlook for full-year growth slowing to 1.1% from 1.4% in 2025 due to cyclical headwinds. Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on March 19, citing energy uncertainties. Traders eye February monthly GDP (due mid-April) and Q1 flash estimate (late April) as key catalysts that could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
Volume
$20,689End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 76% implied probability to UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.0-0.3%, reflecting January's flat monthly output—real GDP unchanged month-on-month per ONS data released March 13—and softening S&P Global flash PMIs for March, with the composite index dipping to 51.0 amid Middle East conflict-driven oil price shocks and inflation pressures. This positions the low-growth bucket as the clear leader, aligning with NIESR's 0.3% Q1 forecast and the OBR's March outlook for full-year growth slowing to 1.1% from 1.4% in 2025 due to cyclical headwinds. Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on March 19, citing energy uncertainties. Traders eye February monthly GDP (due mid-April) and Q1 flash estimate (late April) as key catalysts that could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$20,689End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 76% implied probability to UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.0-0.3%, reflecting January's flat monthly output—real GDP unchanged month-on-month per ONS data released March 13—and softening S&P Global flash PMIs for March, with the composite index dipping to 51.0 amid Middle East conflict-driven oil price shocks and inflation pressures. This positions the low-growth bucket as the clear leader, aligning with NIESR's 0.3% Q1 forecast and the OBR's March outlook for full-year growth slowing to 1.1% from 1.4% in 2025 due to cyclical headwinds. Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on March 19, citing energy uncertainties. Traders eye February monthly GDP (due mid-April) and Q1 flash estimate (late April) as key catalysts that could shift sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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