Incumbent Republican Chip Roy holds a commanding lead in Texas's 21st Congressional District, a solidly red seat with a partisan voting index of R+14, driving trader consensus to 82.5% for the GOP amid strong historical margins—Roy won by over 30 points in 2022. Early voting began October 21 with high turnout expected to favor Republicans in Texas, bolstered by Roy's fundraising edge and endorsement alignment with national GOP priorities. The Democratic challenger faces steep barriers in this low-turnout district lacking recent polling shifts, though national House control dynamics keep minor uncertainty alive ahead of the November 5 election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedTX-21 House Election Winner
TX-21 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
83%
Democratic Party
12%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$7,489 Vol.
83%
Democratic Party
$0 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Chip Roy holds a commanding lead in Texas's 21st Congressional District, a solidly red seat with a partisan voting index of R+14, driving trader consensus to 82.5% for the GOP amid strong historical margins—Roy won by over 30 points in 2022. Early voting began October 21 with high turnout expected to favor Republicans in Texas, bolstered by Roy's fundraising edge and endorsement alignment with national GOP priorities. The Democratic challenger faces steep barriers in this low-turnout district lacking recent polling shifts, though national House control dynamics keep minor uncertainty alive ahead of the November 5 election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$7,489End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Chip Roy holds a commanding lead in Texas's 21st Congressional District, a solidly red seat with a partisan voting index of R+14, driving trader consensus to 82.5% for the GOP amid strong historical margins—Roy won by over 30 points in 2022. Early voting began October 21 with high turnout expected to favor Republicans in Texas, bolstered by Roy's fundraising edge and endorsement alignment with national GOP priorities. The Democratic challenger faces steep barriers in this low-turnout district lacking recent polling shifts, though national House control dynamics keep minor uncertainty alive ahead of the November 5 election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$7,489End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Chip Roy holds a commanding lead in Texas's 21st Congressional District, a solidly red seat with a partisan voting index of R+14, driving trader consensus to 82.5% for the GOP amid strong historical margins—Roy won by over 30 points in 2022. Early voting began October 21 with high turnout expected to favor Republicans in Texas, bolstered by Roy's fundraising edge and endorsement alignment with national GOP priorities. The Democratic challenger faces steep barriers in this low-turnout district lacking recent polling shifts, though national House control dynamics keep minor uncertainty alive ahead of the November 5 election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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