Trader consensus reflects an 84.5% implied probability that President Trump completes at least the first three years of his second term, driven by the absence of active impeachment proceedings, invocation of the 25th Amendment, or credible resignation signals amid Republican control of the House and Senate. Recent developments, including approval of White House ballroom renovations on April 2 and Trump's outlined ceasefire demands in ongoing foreign policy talks reported yesterday, underscore routine executive operations without destabilizing scandals or health crises. Ongoing concerns about his age have not materialized into disqualifying events, while historical precedents show presidents rarely exit early absent extraordinary catalysts; upcoming 2026 midterms pose risks but remain too distant to shift odds significantly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$5,645,995 Vol.
$5,645,995 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$5,645,995 Vol.
$5,645,995 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects an 84.5% implied probability that President Trump completes at least the first three years of his second term, driven by the absence of active impeachment proceedings, invocation of the 25th Amendment, or credible resignation signals amid Republican control of the House and Senate. Recent developments, including approval of White House ballroom renovations on April 2 and Trump's outlined ceasefire demands in ongoing foreign policy talks reported yesterday, underscore routine executive operations without destabilizing scandals or health crises. Ongoing concerns about his age have not materialized into disqualifying events, while historical precedents show presidents rarely exit early absent extraordinary catalysts; upcoming 2026 midterms pose risks but remain too distant to shift odds significantly.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$5,645,995End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects an 84.5% implied probability that President Trump completes at least the first three years of his second term, driven by the absence of active impeachment proceedings, invocation of the 25th Amendment, or credible resignation signals amid Republican control of the House and Senate. Recent developments, including approval of White House ballroom renovations on April 2 and Trump's outlined ceasefire demands in ongoing foreign policy talks reported yesterday, underscore routine executive operations without destabilizing scandals or health crises. Ongoing concerns about his age have not materialized into disqualifying events, while historical precedents show presidents rarely exit early absent extraordinary catalysts; upcoming 2026 midterms pose risks but remain too distant to shift odds significantly.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$5,645,996End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 84.5% implied probability that President Trump completes at least the first three years of his second term, driven by the absence of active impeachment proceedings, invocation of the 25th Amendment, or credible resignation signals amid Republican control of the House and Senate. Recent developments, including approval of White House ballroom renovations on April 2 and Trump's outlined ceasefire demands in ongoing foreign policy talks reported yesterday, underscore routine executive operations without destabilizing scandals or health crises. Ongoing concerns about his age have not materialized into disqualifying events, while historical precedents show presidents rarely exit early absent extraordinary catalysts; upcoming 2026 midterms pose risks but remain too distant to shift odds significantly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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