Sudan's civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) entered its fourth year on April 15, 2026, amid a military stalemate that has displaced millions and created the world's worst humanitarian crisis, with no ceasefire in prospect. A Berlin donor conference on April 15 secured nearly $1.8 billion in aid pledges and calls for a humanitarian truce, but neither faction attended, highlighting fractured diplomacy. U.S. Treasury sanctions on April 17 targeted RSF recruitment networks while pressing for a truce, yet prior U.S.-backed frameworks were rejected and past ceasefires routinely violated. External arms supplies and absent direct talks sustain the deadlock, dimming odds of resolution absent major breakthroughs like IGAD-mediated negotiations or UN Security Council actions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSudan civil war ceasefire by...?
Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?
$61,707 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
June 30, 2026
4%
December 31, 2026
22%
$61,707 Vol.
June 30, 2026
$2,366 Vol.
4%
December 31, 2026
$193 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.Sudan's civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) entered its fourth year on April 15, 2026, amid a military stalemate that has displaced millions and created the world's worst humanitarian crisis, with no ceasefire in prospect. A Berlin donor conference on April 15 secured nearly $1.8 billion in aid pledges and calls for a humanitarian truce, but neither faction attended, highlighting fractured diplomacy. U.S. Treasury sanctions on April 17 targeted RSF recruitment networks while pressing for a truce, yet prior U.S.-backed frameworks were rejected and past ceasefires routinely violated. External arms supplies and absent direct talks sustain the deadlock, dimming odds of resolution absent major breakthroughs like IGAD-mediated negotiations or UN Security Council actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Dec 22, 2025, 2:08 PM ET
Volume
$61,707End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 22, 2025, 2:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.Sudan's civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) entered its fourth year on April 15, 2026, amid a military stalemate that has displaced millions and created the world's worst humanitarian crisis, with no ceasefire in prospect. A Berlin donor conference on April 15 secured nearly $1.8 billion in aid pledges and calls for a humanitarian truce, but neither faction attended, highlighting fractured diplomacy. U.S. Treasury sanctions on April 17 targeted RSF recruitment networks while pressing for a truce, yet prior U.S.-backed frameworks were rejected and past ceasefires routinely violated. External arms supplies and absent direct talks sustain the deadlock, dimming odds of resolution absent major breakthroughs like IGAD-mediated negotiations or UN Security Council actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$61,707End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 22, 2025, 2:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Sudan's civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) entered its fourth year on April 15, 2026, amid a military stalemate that has displaced millions and created the world's worst humanitarian crisis, with no ceasefire in prospect. A Berlin donor conference on April 15 secured nearly $1.8 billion in aid pledges and calls for a humanitarian truce, but neither faction attended, highlighting fractured diplomacy. U.S. Treasury sanctions on April 17 targeted RSF recruitment networks while pressing for a truce, yet prior U.S.-backed frameworks were rejected and past ceasefires routinely violated. External arms supplies and absent direct talks sustain the deadlock, dimming odds of resolution absent major breakthroughs like IGAD-mediated negotiations or UN Security Council actions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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