Name: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
Start: 2025-01-22T19:27:04.792364Z
End: 2025-06-30T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?

A Special Tribunal for the crime of aggression against Ukraine is being established, signaling accountability for Russia's leadership following their violation of the UN Charter. Ukrainian forces have also been authorized to use Western weapons throughout Russia, lifting previous restrictions on such strikes.

Ukraine Tribunal Announced

When Russia chose to roll its tanks over Ukraine’s borders, breaking the UN Charter, it committed one of the gravest violations: 

The Crime of Aggression.

Now, justice is coming. 
Justice for Ukraine.

We have laid down the legal foundations for a Special Tribunal ↓

Unpunished crimes only encourage new atrocities.

Today we have taken an important step towards establishing a Special Tribunal for the crime of aggression against Ukraine.

This is a signal to the world that no one from Russia’s leadership is untouchable. https://t.co/dgWWs4Oc3L

Ukraine can strike at Russia with Western weapons - The ban has been lifted

Ukrainian forces have been authorized to use Western weapons throughout Russia.

Previously, such strikes were limited, but now the ban has been lifted. https://t.co/PvBXCMPXUD

Trump explained how Kiev would pay the US – with Ukraine’s rare earths. What about Europe? It will pay through the nose to piece the failed state of Ukraine back together from its scraps. Europeans, thank your leaders for this: Ursula, Macron, Scholz, and other pathetic figures!

PRESIDENT TRUMP: "When I left, we had no problem. There was no Ukraine and Russia fighting, there was no October 7th — there was nothing. Some very poor leadership led to a lot of problems and a lot of death... We have a lot of fires, but we'll put them out." https://t.co/w95BXPEUVq

🧵 Zelensky said he'd love to know what secret deal Biden struck with Putin on Ukraine in June 2021 in Geneva. Easy to deduce:

1. On Jan 19 2022, President Biden reaffirmed to Putin that the United States will not defend Ukraine when Russia invades. Russia invaded a month later. https://t.co/NTM0rJXKtk

JUST IN: 🇺🇦🇷🇺 President Zelensky says Ukraine is ready to talk with Russian President Putin and end the war, but Europe must be present at negotiations. https://t.co/6ee9UK9cVO

🇺🇦🇷🇺🇩🇰 “A ceasefire in Ukraine now would allow Russia to mobilize more resources and maybe attack another European country.”

— Denmark’s PM Mette Frederiksen

But then Ukraine is safe? 🤣🤣🤣 They’re delusional https://t.co/B1WW8Nvhs0

"Give us back nuclear arms."

Ukraine’s President Zelenksy has issued the plea while discussing with Piers Morgan how the war with Russia can end.

Watch more tonight on YouTube from 8pm (UK) / 3pm (EST).

SUBSCRIBE: https://t.co/QR11ywsANx

@ZelenskyyUa | @piersmorgan https://t.co/Uuk1b30Y6r

🚨 Ukraine's President Zelensky, today: Substantive discussions have begun with President Trump's National Security Advisor, Col. Mike Waltz.
⬇️Col. Waltz in April 2022: We must support Zelensky in an effort to WIN &amp; drive Russia completely out of Ukraine. https://t.co/kksq7z5pNa

President Donald Trump has engaged in diplomatic efforts to end the conflict in Ukraine, holding discussions with Vladimir Putin and announcing potential peace talks, while facing criticism for echoing Kremlin narratives and sidelining Ukraine's involvement. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy insists on being part of any peace deal, as European leaders and NATO officials express mixed reactions to Trump's approach and the ongoing war dynamics.

Trump Negotiates Ukraine Peace

A reminder: Vladimir Putin could end the war in Ukraine right now, just by ordering his soldiers to go home. No need for treaties or negotiations.

Wow…

Trump just accused Biden of starting the war in Ukraine! 👀

For decades, Russia have been clear that NATO membership for Ukraine was a hard red line, yet Biden pushed for membership anyways, provoking Russia.

The Deep State are responsible for this war, not Russia. https://t.co/LEoTDON7z1

I spoke with Polish Prime Minister @donaldtusk. We discussed the conditions needed for a lasting and real peace in Ukraine and agreed that no negotiations with Putin can begin without a united position from Ukraine, Europe, and the U.S.

I informed the Prime Minister about my

Putin scored a major victory over the U.S., NATO, and Ukraine this week, which is why Putin did not negotiate with Biden or Zelensky. He waited to negotiate with Trump because he believed the Kremlin would get more out of a Trump deal. And he was absolutely right. https://t.co/rFflYmcCbX

A day after his ‘highly productive’ call with Putin, Trump echoes the Kremlin’s main talking point by blaming Ukraine, the U.S., and NATO for Putin’s war.

What a fu*king traitor https://t.co/98tTLvey2p

If Trump shows it was always easy to end the Ukraine-Russia war -- and things are heading that way -- whatever is left of the Democrat base will collapse.

JUST IN: 🇷🇺 Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov praises US President Trump's diplomatic efforts to end the conflict in Ukraine. 

"This is how you should communicate with Russia." https://t.co/Nk7FM69EHE

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇷🇺 US President Trump calls for Russia to be readmitted to G7. 

"I would love to have them back. I think it was a mistake to throw them out." https://t.co/bEWw2O0DxA

JUST IN: NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte says Ukraine was never promised a membership in NATO. https://t.co/HDtVLYrPc4

GREAT TALKS WITH RUSSIA AND UKRAINE YESTERDAY. GOOD POSSIBILITY OF ENDING THAT HORRIBLE, VERY BLOODY WAR!!!

Donald Trump Truth Social Post 06:52 AM EST 02/13/25

BREAKING:

Scholz calls onparliament to impose a state of emergency due to "the events of the last 24 hours and the statements made by the U.S. government"about Ukraine.

It’s worth remembering that Scholz has refused to send Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine for more than a year https://t.co/KG1GH6Ykec

I spoke with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez @sanchezcastejon and thanked him for Spain’s support of Ukraine and our people. I also informed him about my conversation with President Trump—a substantial discussion that provided greater clarity on key issues. 

We will

After my today phone calls with @ZelenskyyUa , @eucopresident Costa, @Bundeskanzler Scholz, @SwedishPM Ulf Kristersson and CDU leader @_FriedrichMerz, the message is clear: Ukraine, Europe and the US must be fully united and engage in peace talks.

Ukraine's President Zelensky says he won't accept any peace deal reached between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin without Ukraine's involvement - follow live
 https://t.co/Hid5lUXJz6

President Trump defends the comments from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that Ukraine will not join NATO:

"I don't see any way that a country in Russia's position could allow them to join NATO. I don't see that happening.

"I believe that's the reason the war started because https://t.co/bOwvJgk2rh

BREAKING:

Nigel Farage on peace deal in Ukraine:

“Ukraine now joining NATO is almost an essential part of this peace deal.” https://t.co/ExEuohHaEv

Ukraine has launched its largest drone attack on Russian territory, targeting airports in Moscow and oil refineries in Ryazan, while Russia responds with plans to create a security buffer zone in border regions like Kharkov. Simultaneously, international pressure mounts as the EU considers suspending Hungary's voting rights to ensure aid to Ukraine, and figures like Ben Shapiro and Lindsey Graham call for stronger support against Russia.

Ukraine Drone Attack Escalates

I've seen some criticism of Zaluzhnyi’s recent statement that Ukraine currently lacks the capacity to fully liberate its territories - whether to the 1991 or even the 2022 borders. Overall, I believe it’s a fair and realistic assessment. While many have disagreed, the statement

BREAKING:

Ukraine has launched its largest drone attack against Russia yet.

The airports in Moscow has suspended operations and oil refineries in Ryazan are hit. https://t.co/VAFBNWBsEe

I held an extended meeting with the military. Among other topics, we discussed the military foundation for diplomacy — the next technical meeting. We are working to ensure it takes place as soon as possible. Ukraine’s interest is not to prolong the war, but to be prepared for any https://t.co/h8Nr0FQndT

Putin doesn’t have the cards. Russia’s economy is tanking and it’s making minimal progress on the battlefield.

Putin might be willing to spend Russia’s last ruble on it’s war in Ukraine but the rubles are running out. We need more pressure.

Thank you for the interview, @IsaCNN. https://t.co/VFjVzMLC6D

❗️The 🇪🇺EU Council will discuss suspending 🇭🇺Hungary’s voting rights under Article 7 on May 27. This could stop Hungary from blocking aid to Ukraine and EU sanctions on Russia. https://t.co/hMRTUOMq7X

Ukraine launched its largest ever drone attack on Russian territory today.

❕Ben Shapiro is calling Congress to step in and help Ukraine https://t.co/SjmZwsfNDR

BREAKING:

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Putin officially announced that Russia is going to create "a security BUFFER ZONE" in 3 new regions in Ukraine bordering Russia

It looks like the negotiations have failed...

"The enemy chooses targets that have no military significance. It targets ambulances, https://t.co/dLHik0WIkQ

⚡️Lindsey Graham gives Putin “a couple of days” — or the U.S. will hit Russia with 500% tariffs

U.S. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham issued a sharp warning: if Russia doesn't present a clear and concrete ceasefire memorandum demonstrating a real intent for peace within the https://t.co/7smgThUIJD

"Ukraine should not expect a return to the 1991 borders. Russia has the resources to continue the war, according to a statement by Valerii Zaluzhnyi at the Security Export: Ukrainian Weapons in the World forum.

'I hope that there are no more people in this room who still believe https://t.co/7hcahS2pPp

JUST IN:

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russia decided to create "a security buffer zone" on the border with Ukraine - Putin announced 

This means Kharkov and Summy regions are going to be taken.

Russian President Vladimir Putin at an operational meeting with members of the government announced that a https://t.co/4vvLAKrEH4

"A decision has been taken to create the necessary security buffer zone along the [Ukraine-Russia] borders. Our armed forces are now handling this task. The work is underway." - Putin.

Putin's "peace". https://t.co/xyaJ76TXOl

Ukrainian forces conducted a significant strike on Russia's Ufa Oil Refinery, located over 1,300 km behind the frontline, while international support intensifies with the UK signing a £2.26 billion loan agreement and Britain committing to long-term military and financial aid for Ukraine. Tensions rise as NATO countries consider troop deployment, risking broader conflict, amidst ongoing Russian aggression and Ukrainian resistance led by President Zelenskyy rejecting ceasefire calls.

Ukraine Conflict Escalates

It was an honour to welcome @ZelenskyyUa to Downing Street and reiterate my unwavering support for Ukraine.

I am determined to find a path that ends Russia's illegal war and ensures a just and lasting peace that secures Ukraine’s future sovereignty and security.

Slava Ukraini. https://t.co/N2EQfYKoBi

Ukraine is fighting for the normal and safe life it deserves, for a just and reliable peace. We want this war to end. But Russia does not, and continues its aerial terror: over the past week, more than 1,050 attack drones, nearly 1,300 aerial bombs, and more than 20 missiles have https://t.co/OkZMY9hhgT

Russia’s war against Ukraine did not start on February 24, 2022. It started over a decade ago — in Crimea.

And every day since, Canada has been clear: we stand with the people of Ukraine. https://t.co/ZnpxkeRZvn

This week started with administration officials refusing to acknowledge that Russia started the war in Ukraine. It ends with a tense, shocking conversation in the Oval Office and whispers from the White House that they may try to end all U.S. support for Ukraine. I know foreign

Ukrainian attack drones successfully conducted one of the deepest strikes of the war tonight, hitting Russia’s Ufa Oil Refinery, over 1300 km behind the frontline. 

The Russian refinery is burning. https://t.co/dKF9EjINLR

🚨 BREAKING: Ukrainian drones just pulled off one of the deepest strikes of the war—hitting Russia’s Ufa Oil Refinery 1,300 km behind the front lines.

The refinery is burning. Kyiv isn’t playing around. 🇺🇦 https://t.co/Jm4gxtepHy

In London, I announced new sanctions against key Kremlin allies — paramilitary organizations, their leaders, and others — who are complicit in helping Russia wage war in Ukraine.
 
We won’t allow Russia’s enablers to prolong this illegal invasion.

We have a huge problem on our hands.

NATO countries are now saying they'll bypass the U.S. and send their troops into Ukraine.

And then, if Russia attacks, they might invoke Article 5, which would basically start World War 3 by dragging in all of NATO and the U.S.

Bad things

BREAKING: E.U. LEADERS JUST ANNOUNCED THAT EUROPE WILL SEND TROOPS TO DIRECTLY FIGHT RUSSIA IN UKRAINE AND THAT THE GLOBALIST DEMAND THE U.S. UNDER NATO ARTICLE 5, MUST JOIN IN THE PSYCHIC, INSANITY! 
TRUMP MUST PULL THE USA OUT OF NATO NOW, TO STOP THE PROBABLE DESTRUCTION OF https://t.co/Y65Y9TvAMx

Britain has signed a hundred year agreement to support Ukraine militarily and financially. This includes providing Ukraine £3 billion a year until 2031 and to support Ukraine “for as long as needed,” and establishing military bases along the Sea of Azov, which Russia controls. https://t.co/stY36mV6rd

JUST IN: 🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukrainian President Zelensky rejects calls for immediate ceasefire with Russia. https://t.co/TslfWWrZCD

Today @SergiiMarchenk3 and I signed the UK-Ukraine Bilateral Agreement to deliver £2.26bn of new funding to Ukraine.

This will be repaid using profits from sanctioned Russian sovereign assets.

Action, not just words - Britain stands with Ukraine. 

🇬🇧🇺🇦 https://t.co/3vaOXUoJ0Y

The UK and Ukraine have signed a new £2.26 billion loan package to purchase arms for Ukraine. 

The loans will be paid back with frozen Russian assets. https://t.co/FM0JCJBA0n

🚨 NEW: Chancellor Rachel Reeves has signed a £2.26 billion loan agreement with Ukraine to strengthen its defence capabilities, to be repaid using profits from frozen Russian assets https://t.co/825kN3S67v

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has announced the beginning of a “Coalition of the Willing” to include the United Kingdom, who are prepared to enforce a Peace Deal and an end to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine, with “Boots on the Ground and Planes in the Air.” https://t.co/7Mow6pthXM

Russia has launched a series of devastating attacks on Ukraine, including a ballistic missile strike in Kryvyi Rih that killed at least 14 people, among them 6 children, targeting civilian areas and infrastructure. Simultaneously, Ukraine retaliated with drone strikes deep into Russian territory, damaging key military production facilities, while Russian missile and drone assaults continue unabated across the country.

Russia Attacks Ukraine

Tragic and inhumane images coming out from Kryvyi Rih. 

Another reckless Russian attack struck a crowded residential area, reportedly killing at least  14, including 6 children. 

Russia continues to destroy Ukraine, no interest in peace.

BREAKING: Russia just killed at least 6 children in Ukraine and also targeted the Kherson thermal power plant. 

Putin is evil, and Trump apparently fell for his lies. https://t.co/2FgBbDAVA3

Overnight, Ukrainian attack drones successfully penetrated over 750km into Russian airspace and struck Russia's only domestic fiber optic producer, an immensely key link for Russian drone production. 

The facility is heavily damaged and burning. https://t.co/KVQt4A1bao

Officially, Russia has killed over 600 Ukrainian children and injured more than 1,350 — using ballistic missiles, Iskanders, Shaheds, Kalibr cruise missiles, Kinzhal hypersonic weapons, and other types of rockets.

The actual number of children killed is likely much higher. https://t.co/LR1m4ADd0R

This is what Russia does to Ukraine on a daily basis. 

This is Kryvyi Rih just tonight, Zelensky's hometown.

A Russian Iskander missile, a cluster load, fired just into the middle of a densely populated residential area, next to a playground for kids.
 
At least 14 killed, as https://t.co/XmoqzmG2g3

Hi. Tonight for the first time in months, if not a year, there are Russian missiles flying throughout Ukraine launched from the Black Sea. For the past year, this was nearly impossible, thanks to Ukraine's protective sea drones. 

But then the White House bought into the

Russia killed six children.
Six.
In a single second.
Six young Ukrainian lives ended by a ballistic strike on Kryvyi Rih.

How’s Elon Musk’s dad doing?
Still admiring putin, the child killer?

Furious that tonight Russia, in the fourth year of its genocidal all-out invasion of Ukraine, fired a ballistic missile into a Kryvyi Rih playground and restaurant, murdering 16 innocents, including 6 children. This is why Russia must be defeated. https://t.co/7s8ZuMNhUY

Russia has repeatedly targeted playgrounds — places that symbolize childhood. Since the start of the full-scale invasion, over 600 Ukrainian children have been killed — some even near the very swings and slides. Six of them were killed today in Kryvyi Rih.

To Russia, nothing is https://t.co/MEKjF4nrFS

Currently one of the largest missile and drone attacks of the war is taking place all across Ukraine.

In the past hour, Russian ships, jets and long range bombers have launched missiles, now headed toward cities all over the country, in addition to swarms of Shahed drones.

This https://t.co/VTk88VWh8j

Russia is attacking Ukraine with Kalibr missiles.

There is a high probability of a massive Russian missile attack in the early hours of the morning.

Russian drones are also in Ukraine's airspace.

And Russia says it wants peace. https://t.co/b63jnyzkSe

Another horrific Russian missile strike on Ukraine. A peaceful neighbourhood in Kryvyi Rih shattered by terror. Children among the victims.

Russia does not want peace—its missiles make that clear. Only determined international action can stop Russia and bring this war to an end.

Zelensky: We can talk with Russians in any format. Russia doesn’t want ceasefire, peace. French and British troops will be first in Ukraine as security. The US is close to imposing more sanctions on Russia. 0/ https://t.co/FssPK5C2Da

Russia has used the entire two-month negotiation process as cover to escalate attacks on Ukraine’s civilian population, now committing massacres several times a day across the country.

Meanwhile, Ukraine abides by a ceasefire on Russia’s cash-producing energy infrastructure—the

❗️Rubio said that if the Russians start a new military campaign, then "we will understand that they are not interested in peace." 

To the remark of journalists that Russia is already targeting Ukrainian energy facilities, he added:

"It means that they are violating the https://t.co/puBsi8FejV

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated earlier during a press conference at the NATO Headquarters in Brussels, that Russia has a “matter of weeks” to show it is serious about peace negotiations in Ukraine, adding that if Russia starts another offensive “then we will know they https://t.co/c4JnYsMRpx

Russia has officially outlined stringent conditions for ending the war in Ukraine, including demilitarization, denazification, and a pledge against NATO membership, while demanding recognition of annexed territories like Crimea and Donetsk. Meanwhile, North Korea's deployment of troops to support Russia's invasion escalates the conflict, and despite ceasefire proposals from Ukraine and brief pauses announced by Putin, peace negotiations remain strained with conflicting demands and violations.

Russia Sets War Conditions

We in Ukraine never wanted a single second of this war. Back on March 11, we responded positively to the American proposal for a full ceasefire. We made our own proposal to Russia – bilaterally – to halt strikes at least on civilian targets. We also proposed making the Easter https://t.co/Tp9EiF0yFp

We're trying to achieve peace. Instead of rooting against @POTUS, everyone should be hopeful that President Trump can bring the Russia-Ukraine war to an end. https://t.co/hmWq91C4No

BREAKING from North Korea 🇰🇵 :

North Korea has officially ordered troops to deploy to Russia to support the invasion of Ukraine.

This is no longer just Russia vs Ukraine. This is North Korea joining an illegal war on European soil.

Europe does not have to ask anyone for

Putin has declared a 3-day ceasefire in Ukraine 🇺🇦 from May 8th to May 11th to allow for Russia’s May 9th victory day parade in Moscow

The last ceasefire that Putin declared a week ago during Easter, Russia ended up breaking +2,000 times in 36 hours (CNN) https://t.co/ZRNbdL2tyr

🚨RUSSIA OFFICIALLY DECLARES CONDITIONS TO END WAR🚨

Russia has officially declared its conditions for ending the war, according to MFA Lavrov in an interview with a Brazilian newspaper:

1. Demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine;
2. Ukraine must not join NATO;
3. https://t.co/Plsd4wB0C5

Vice President @JDVance shares a critical update on Russia/Ukraine peace negotiations:

"If this doesn't stop, the Ukrainians aren't winning the war."

"I think there's this weird idea among the mainstream media that if this thing goes on for just another few years, the Russians https://t.co/dXT0Y9BoVi

BREAKING:

Russia says it won’t agree to a temporary ceasefire unless all weapon deliveries cease &amp; the Ukrainian Armed Forces stop rearming.

The info was released by Russian Foreign Minister S. Lavrov

Russia’s puts forward unacceptable terms because they don’t want a ceasefire https://t.co/O1rbRerjJP

Wow,

So basically Ukraine can’t attack military vehicles that will be paraded around because if we do the entire world will hate us for not honouring a ceasefire.

But Ukraine announces a 30 day ceasefire that russia violates every day and the world is perfectly fine with russia https://t.co/ZIZfIrCVB7

Russia is willing to agree to an "unconditional" ceasefire if weapons shipments to Ukraine stop and if the ceasefire isn't used to strengthen Ukraine's military- Lavrov said.

Conditional "unconditional" ceasefire. What a clown 🤡 https://t.co/oJqhJ0mtWU

🇷🇺Russia has officially presented its conditions for the resolution of the war. 
They contradict Trump's plan

The demands:

Ukraine will not join NATO, must be "demilitarized" and "denazified."

The entry of Crimea, DPR, LPR, Kherson region and Zaporizhia into Russia receives

If Russia truly wants peace, it must cease fire immediately.

Why wait until May 8th? If the fire can be ceased now and since any date for 30 days—so it is real, not just for a parade.

Ukraine is ready to support a lasting, durable, and full ceasefire. And this is what we are

BREAKING: Russia says it is 'ready' to talk with Ukraine

Russia has officially outlined its ridiculous demands for ending the war in Ukraine. According to Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, these conditions are:

- Demilitarization and “denazification” of Ukraine
- Permanent neutrality - Ukraine must pledge not to join NATO
- https://t.co/v0gsLhehse

Russia has officially put forward its conditions to end the war – according to old horse Lavrov:

1. Demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine;
2. Ukraine must not join NATO;
3. International recognition of the annexation of Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and https://t.co/54CoaMcaoQ

Lavrov basically tells Trump to get lost: Russia’s conditions for peace include full international recognition and actual control over 5 Ukrainian regions, demilitarization and “denazification” — aka regime change in Kyiv  — plus rollback of European military buildup on Russian https://t.co/uIToYizjch

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 14, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in March?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following two conditions are met:

1) Donald J. Trump wins the 2024 US Presidential election.

2) An armistice, ceasefire, or negotiated settlement is announced by both Ukraine and Russia regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine at any point between the Associated Press calling the election for Donald Trump, and April 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Trump loses the 2024 US Presidential election, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The resolution source for Trump winning the presidency is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This portion of the market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2025) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least the temporary end of the Ukraine-Russia military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both countries. The specific date that such an agreement will take effect is not relevant to the resolution of this market. The only requirement is that the agreement must be announced within this market's specified timeframe.

This market will resolve based on the first announcement of such an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement. If it is first announced before this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".


Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 21, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.



Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by August 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by September 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. 

A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by September 15?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by August 23, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. 

A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 23?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by October 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. 

A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 15?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. 

A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by November 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. 

A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 15?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. 

A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. 

A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 15?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.  

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. 

If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.

Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.  

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. 

If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.

Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an agreement on an official buffer zone between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "buffer zone" is defined as a neutral or otherwise militarily restricted area that lies between the territories of Russia and Ukraine and is intended to reduce or manage conflict between them.

A qualifying buffer zone does not need to cover a minimum geographic area, nor require the withdrawal of all categories of weapons or personnel. It is sufficient that the agreement explicitly demonstrates mutual intent to suspend offensive military action within the designated zone, for example, by stipulating the withdrawal of heavy artillery, armored vehicles, etc.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the buffer zone is established formally by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, announcements of a partial implementation, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.

A mutual agreement on a buffer zone will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of potential subsequent violations of such an agreement.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a broad consensus of credible media reporting stating an official agreement regarding a buffer zone between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

Russia x Ukraine buffer zone agreement by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine officially agrees to a peace framework to end the Russo–Ukrainian war that the United States has formally endorsed by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying peace framework is any publicly announced plan, roadmap, or framework intended as the basis for ending the war, provided that the United States formally endorses it and Ukraine officially agrees to it through one of the following:

1. A written or signed framework-related instrument issued or signed by Ukraine that affirms agreement with the U.S.-endorsed framework.

2. An official U.S.–Ukraine announcement — defined as an official government-issued declaration, such as a joint statement, communiqué, or coordinated official releases, explicitly stating that Ukraine has agreed to a U.S.-endorsed peace framework. The announcement must be issued through authorized government channels, including official written releases or formally published transcripts by the White House, State Department, Office of the President of Ukraine, Cabinet of Ministers, or Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Verbal (including interviews or remarks during bilateral meetings) and social-media claims by either leader will not qualify unless later issued in an official written or published form by the respective government. The U.S. President or any US government official publicly stating that “an agreement has been reached,” without a corresponding formal release or communiqué, will not qualify; the same applies to statements by the Ukrainian President or Ukrainian officials.

3. A formally issued Ukrainian governmental action — including a presidential decree, Cabinet resolution, or National Security and Defense Council decision — explicitly stating that Ukraine agrees to the U.S.-endorsed framework. 

The primary resolution source will be official government documents, statements, decrees, and credible reporting confirming that Ukraine officially agreed to a U.S.-endorsed peace framework under the standards above.


Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede territory under its control in Russia’s Kursk Oblast is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.  

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia regains territory in the Kursk Oblast through military action, or if Ukraine unilaterally cedes Russian territory absent of a diplomatic process or agreement, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Will Ukraine agree to give up Russian territory in Kursk?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement. 

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count.

An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement.

An official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia.

The April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.


Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf

Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a missile or drone launched by the Ukrainian armed forces strikes Moscow municipality, or any target within the municipality, between September 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, if a missile or drone launched by the Ukrainian armed forces is intercepted before striking Moscow or any target in it, even if it enters Moscow's airspace and its wreckage lands in Moscow, it will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence. If there is ambiguity over whether a strike occurred, or whether the drone/missile was intercepted, this market will resolve based on whatever is most likely according to a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence.

Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ukrainian armed forces initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Russian soil on the listed date Moscow Standard Time (MSK). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, “Russian ground territory” and “Russian soil” refer exclusively to internationally recognized Russian territory as defined by pre-2014 borders.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Ukrainian armed forces that impact Russian ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Russia counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Russian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Ukrainian armed forces will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Ukrainian or Russian), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Ukraine strike in Russia on 25 November 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official pledge by Ukraine to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.

A qualifying agreement must include a commitment by Ukraine to limit the total number of personnel in its armed forces. This includes any specific numerical cap on the number of personnel Ukraine may have in its armed forces, or any proportional limit on Ukrainian armed forces personnel (e.g., a commitment to reduce the size of the armed forces by a percentage of its current size). Limits on the number of personnel in specific branches of the Ukrainian armed forces will not count.

Other limits on Ukrainian military powers, such as the relinquishment of long-range weapons or limits on other categories of armaments or military capabilities, that do not constrain the total number of personnel in Ukraine’s armed forces, will not qualify.

An agreement by Ukraine to limit the number of personnel in its armed forces as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not yet finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.

Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been made will also qualify.

Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside of 2025, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between August 14, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability.

An extension, amendment, or replacement of the New START treaty will qualify, provided it is publicly announced as a concluded agreement by both parties within the time frame. Exploratory discussions or stated intent to extend without a finalized agreement will not qualify.

Agreements that include both the United States and Russia as named parties—whether bilateral or as part of a broader multilateral framework—will qualify, provided the agreement directly addresses nuclear arms control.

The agreement does not need to be ratified or implemented for this market to resolve "Yes"; a formal announcement of a concluded agreement is sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government (e.g., the White House, State Department) and/or the Russian Federation (e.g., the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs). However, a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if active military personnel officially affiliated with any NATO or EU country enter Ukraine for combat-related military purposes directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, they must be 1) officially acknowledged as active military by the NATO or EU entity or member state they are affiliated with; 2) be publicly acknowledged by NATO or an EU-affiliated entity to have entered Ukraine for a combat-related military purpose directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia.

For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution they need be active duty and acknowledged as described above. Participation in a combat role is necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes" (e.g. military personnel providing training or intelligence support would not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, however drone pilots or infantry directly attacking Russian troops, or soldiers targeting and downing missiles from Ukrainian soil would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO, the EU, or member states of either entity, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin talk by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

A talk is defined as any interaction between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.

Events that occurred prior to the start of this market will not qualify toward its resolution.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ukrainian armed forces initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Moscow municipality's soil on the listed date Moscow Standard Time (MSK). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Ukrainian armed forces that impact Moscow municipality's ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Moscow municipality counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the Moscow municipality's territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Ukrainian armed forces will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Ukrainian or Russian), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Ukraine strike on Moscow municipality by December 31?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 23, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Putin out as president of Russia
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Trump visits Russia
- Putin meets Zelensky
- Russia invades a NATO country

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/RU1.png 
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/RU2.png

Nothing Ever Happens: Russia Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between February 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place during this timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?

Amid rumors of a U.S.-drafted peace framework, a so-called 28-point proposal to end the war with Russia, Zelenskiy is scheduled to meet U.S. Army officials in Kyiv on November 20. More details can be found here: https://www.axios.com/2025/11/19/ukraine-peace-plan-trump-russia-witkoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration publicly releases a new framework to end the war between Ukraine and Russia by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying document must be framed as a new peace proposal outlining specific conditions, for example, regarding reparations, territorial agreements, demilitarization, sanctions, etc.

A mere announcement that such a document exists or will be released will not suffice.

To qualify, the Executive Branch must itself publish the document or its content to the public. Reports that a qualifying document was provided privately, for example, to Ukrainian officials, will not suffice. 

Partial releases, such as a written summary or outline, will count as long as they are framed as a peace proposal outlining specific conditions.

Leaks or unverified/unofficial information will not be considered.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump release a new Russia x Ukraine peace plan by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Volodymyr Zelenskyy to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Zelenskyy announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Zelensky resigns in 2025?

If Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visits Russia between September 3 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Zelenskyy physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Zelenskyy enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of Ukraine, official information from Zelenskyy, or information released by his verified social media accounts; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Russia in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine conducts at least one combat strike using a Tomahawk cruise missiles by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Tests used outside of combat will not qualify. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. or Ukrainian government. Credible video or photo evidence, or reporting from The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, BBC, Der Spiegel, DW, Le Monde, Sky News, Al Jazeera, The Kyiv Independent and The Guardian may also be used. 

Ukraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any NATO or EU member country officially announces that they will be sending troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying announcement must be part of a formal agreement between a NATO or EU member country and another country or international organization or otherwise indicative of a formalized policy.

Announcements which are statements of intent, contingent, or otherwise are not indicative of a formalized policy will not count

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO, the EU, or member states of either entity, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.

Sudan civil war ceasefire in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between May 28 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between U.S. and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. 

Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. 

Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. 

Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.


Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Orikhiv by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.

Territory will be considered captured if any part of Orikhiv is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. 

Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?

Market Context

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?

Rules

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?

Market Context

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?

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