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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 39.1%

Marco Rubio 21.5%

Tucker Carlson 4.5%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$567,547,739 Vol.

J.D. Vance 39.1%

Marco Rubio 21.5%

Tucker Carlson 4.5%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$567,547,739 Vol.

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

J.D. Vance

$12,144,490 Vol.

39%

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Marco Rubio

$8,032,734 Vol.

22%

Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Tucker Carlson

$10,312,530 Vol.

4%

Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Ron DeSantis

$12,552,774 Vol.

3%

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Donald Trump

$7,236,601 Vol.

2%

Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Donald Trump Jr.

$6,751,172 Vol.

2%

Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Thomas Massie

$3,256,103 Vol.

2%

Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Glenn Youngkin

$6,395,818 Vol.

2%

Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Tulsi Gabbard

$11,314,602 Vol.

1%

Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Rand Paul

$17,089,948 Vol.

1%

Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Vivek Ramaswamy

$13,856,485 Vol.

1%

Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Ivanka Trump

$6,290,886 Vol.

1%

Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Elon Musk

$26,732,540 Vol.

1%

Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Ted Cruz

$15,216,772 Vol.

1%

Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Marjorie Taylor Greene

$4,706,101 Vol.

1%

Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Nikki Haley

$8,186,268 Vol.

1%

Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Greg Abbott

$18,032,736 Vol.

1%

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$12,686,001 Vol.

1%

Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Brian Kemp

$14,391,299 Vol.

1%

Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Josh Hawley

$17,752,569 Vol.

1%

Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Matt Gaetz

$16,753,490 Vol.

1%

Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Eric Trump

$5,452,847 Vol.

1%

Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$29,323,930 Vol.

1%

Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Katie Britt

$25,659,589 Vol.

1%

Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Tom Brady

$29,354,419 Vol.

1%

Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Steve Bannon

$19,319,756 Vol.

1%

Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Kim Kardashian

$25,431,742 Vol.

1%

Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Pete Hegseth

$4,080,489 Vol.

1%

Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Byron Donalds

$36,429,087 Vol.

1%

Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Elise Stefanik

$23,365,474 Vol.

1%

Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Erika Kirk

$14,360,300 Vol.

1%

Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

John Thune

$31,152,234 Vol.

1%

Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Kristi Noem

$30,851,537 Vol.

1%

Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Joe Kent

$4,287,738 Vol.

1%

Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? icon

Mike Pence

$38,800,731 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s 49% implied probability as the 2028 Republican presidential nominee reflects trader consensus on his bolstered profile from back-to-back April congressional hearings, where he robustly defended HHS's MAHA reforms on vaccines and food safety while clashing with Democrats over policy impacts and President Trump's fitness, energizing populist and health-freedom voter blocs. Vice President J.D. Vance holds at 39.1% on incumbency advantages and historical vice-presidential paths to nomination, though recent Iran tensions highlight his restraint contrasting Marco Rubio's hawkish stance that has lifted the latter to 21.3% amid donor endorsements. This closely contested field persists without a Trump endorsement; 2026 midterms, factional primary polling, and agency successes could widen gaps before Iowa caucuses.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$567,547,739
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s 49% implied probability as the 2028 Republican presidential nominee reflects trader consensus on his bolstered profile from back-to-back April congressional hearings, where he robustly defended HHS's MAHA reforms on vaccines and food safety while clashing with Democrats over policy impacts and President Trump's fitness, energizing populist and health-freedom voter blocs. Vice President J.D. Vance holds at 39.1% on incumbency advantages and historical vice-presidential paths to nomination, though recent Iran tensions highlight his restraint contrasting Marco Rubio's hawkish stance that has lifted the latter to 21.3% amid donor endorsements. This closely contested field persists without a Trump endorsement; 2026 midterms, factional primary polling, and agency successes could widen gaps before Iowa caucuses.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$567,547,739
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 39%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $567.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.