Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 36.9%

Marco Rubio 21.3%

Tucker Carlson 4.9%

Ron DeSantis 2.9%

Polymarket

$482,713,656 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.9%

Marco Rubio 21.3%

Tucker Carlson 4.9%

Ron DeSantis 2.9%

Polymarket

$482,713,656 Vol.

Market icon

J.D. Vance

$6,716,856 Vol.

37%

Market icon

Marco Rubio

$6,531,939 Vol.

21%

Market icon

Tucker Carlson

$7,099,728 Vol.

5%

Market icon

Ron DeSantis

$7,784,559 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Donald Trump

$6,208,487 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Thomas Massie

$2,640,456 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Donald Trump Jr.

$5,805,707 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Glenn Youngkin

$5,510,058 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Rand Paul

$15,908,269 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,263,970 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Ivanka Trump

$4,851,517 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Elon Musk

$21,602,230 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Marjorie Taylor Greene

$3,851,529 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Nikki Haley

$7,065,580 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Greg Abbott

$17,112,147 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Ted Cruz

$13,832,888 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Tulsi Gabbard

$8,874,501 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Matt Gaetz

$15,083,558 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$10,817,639 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Brian Kemp

$12,758,347 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Eric Trump

$3,778,249 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$27,867,855 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Josh Hawley

$15,428,748 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Katie Britt

$24,177,337 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Kristi Noem

$27,721,458 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Pete Hegseth

$1,266,469 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Byron Donalds

$32,758,794 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Elise Stefanik

$21,119,659 Vol.

1%

Market icon

John Thune

$28,535,103 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Joe Kent

$1,654,094 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Tom Brady

$27,464,214 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Steve Bannon

$14,432,851 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Kim Kardashian

$22,588,541 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Erika Kirk

$9,729,460 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Mike Pence

$31,888,891 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, propelled by his high-visibility role as Secretary of Health and Human Services, early polling trends, and recent speculation fueled by cousin Jack Schlossberg's March 7 assertion of a "definite" run despite Kennedy's prior denials. Vice President J.D. Vance trails at 37% after a sharp recent decline below prior highs, amid ambiguous signals on his ambitions and Trump informally polling advisers on Vance versus others. Secretary of State Marco Rubio holds third at 21%, elevated by GOP donor "draft" efforts reported March 16 and his prominence in Iran-related diplomacy, reflecting an open primary field post-Trump's term limit with conventions approaching in 2028.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, propelled by his high-visibility role as Secretary of Health and Human Services, early polling trends, and recent speculation fueled by cousin Jack Schlossberg's March 7 assertion of a "definite" run despite Kennedy's prior denials. Vice President J.D. Vance trails at 37% after a sharp recent decline below prior highs, amid ambiguous signals on his ambitions and Trump informally polling advisers on Vance versus others. Secretary of State Marco Rubio holds third at 21%, elevated by GOP donor "draft" efforts reported March 16 and his prominence in Iran-related diplomacy, reflecting an open primary field post-Trump's term limit with conventions approaching in 2028.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, propelled by his high-visibility role as Secretary of Health and Human Services, early polling trends, and recent speculation fueled by cousin Jack Schlossberg's March 7 assertion of a "definite" run despite Kennedy's prior denials. Vice President J.D. Vance trails at 37% after a sharp recent decline below prior highs, amid ambiguous signals on his ambitions and Trump informally polling advisers on Vance versus others. Secretary of State Marco Rubio holds third at 21%, elevated by GOP donor "draft" efforts reported March 16 and his prominence in Iran-related diplomacy, reflecting an open primary field post-Trump's term limit with conventions approaching in 2028.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, propelled by his high-visibility role as Secretary of Health and Human Services, early polling trends, and recent speculation fueled by cousin Jack Schlossberg's March 7 assertion of a "definite" run despite Kennedy's prior denials. Vice President J.D. Vance trails at 37% after a sharp recent decline below prior highs, amid ambiguous signals on his ambitions and Trump informally polling advisers on Vance versus others. Secretary of State Marco Rubio holds third at 21%, elevated by GOP donor "draft" efforts reported March 16 and his prominence in Iran-related diplomacy, reflecting an open primary field post-Trump's term limit with conventions approaching in 2028.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $482.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.