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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 36.5%

Marco Rubio 20.8%

Tucker Carlson 5.1%

Ron DeSantis 2.9%

Polymarket

$486,973,953 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.5%

Marco Rubio 20.8%

Tucker Carlson 5.1%

Ron DeSantis 2.9%

Polymarket

$486,973,953 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$6,791,002 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,564,843 Vol.

21%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,200,678 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$7,881,264 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,236,864 Vol.

2%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,568,524 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,662,549 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$5,825,315 Vol.

2%

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Rand Paul

$15,926,583 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,290,726 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,231,594 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$13,955,801 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,629,365 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$3,887,935 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,094,453 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,148,038 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$9,060,630 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$10,884,175 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,124,563 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$12,837,395 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,037,468 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$27,903,787 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,234,755 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$27,790,043 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,370,460 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$32,923,792 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$21,198,274 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$15,537,052 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$28,674,178 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$1,688,280 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$27,669,331 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$14,561,031 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$22,871,334 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$10,521,490 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$32,196,714 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% implied probability to secure the Republican presidential nomination in 2028, ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance (37%) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (21%), amid an open primary field shaped by President Trump's constitutional two-term limit. Recent developments include Trump's mid-March polling of major GOP donors favoring Rubio over Vance as his successor—boosting Rubio's odds amid foreign policy spotlights like the Munich conference—while Vance leads a high-profile executive task force on election fraud but faces slipping support. RFK Jr.'s HHS tenure advancing the Make America Healthy Again agenda, coupled with family speculation on his candidacy, drives his frontrunner status among traders wagering real money, though 2026 midterms loom as a key test of party dynamics.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% implied probability to secure the Republican presidential nomination in 2028, ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance (37%) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (21%), amid an open primary field shaped by President Trump's constitutional two-term limit. Recent developments include Trump's mid-March polling of major GOP donors favoring Rubio over Vance as his successor—boosting Rubio's odds amid foreign policy spotlights like the Munich conference—while Vance leads a high-profile executive task force on election fraud but faces slipping support. RFK Jr.'s HHS tenure advancing the Make America Healthy Again agenda, coupled with family speculation on his candidacy, drives his frontrunner status among traders wagering real money, though 2026 midterms loom as a key test of party dynamics.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% implied probability to secure the Republican presidential nomination in 2028, ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance (37%) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (21%), amid an open primary field shaped by President Trump's constitutional two-term limit. Recent developments include Trump's mid-March polling of major GOP donors favoring Rubio over Vance as his successor—boosting Rubio's odds amid foreign policy spotlights like the Munich conference—while Vance leads a high-profile executive task force on election fraud but faces slipping support. RFK Jr.'s HHS tenure advancing the Make America Healthy Again agenda, coupled with family speculation on his candidacy, drives his frontrunner status among traders wagering real money, though 2026 midterms loom as a key test of party dynamics.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% implied probability to secure the Republican presidential nomination in 2028, ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance (37%) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (21%), amid an open primary field shaped by President Trump's constitutional two-term limit. Recent developments include Trump's mid-March polling of major GOP donors favoring Rubio over Vance as his successor—boosting Rubio's odds amid foreign policy spotlights like the Munich conference—while Vance leads a high-profile executive task force on election fraud but faces slipping support. RFK Jr.'s HHS tenure advancing the Make America Healthy Again agenda, coupled with family speculation on his candidacy, drives his frontrunner status among traders wagering real money, though 2026 midterms loom as a key test of party dynamics.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $487 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.