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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 36.5%

Marco Rubio 20.6%

Tucker Carlson 5.3%

Ron DeSantis 2.9%

Polymarket

$487,736,108 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.5%

Marco Rubio 20.6%

Tucker Carlson 5.3%

Ron DeSantis 2.9%

Polymarket

$487,736,108 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$6,795,956 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,577,133 Vol.

21%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,206,342 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$7,896,239 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,241,448 Vol.

2%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,572,328 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,695,168 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$5,826,329 Vol.

2%

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Rand Paul

$15,932,663 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,299,977 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,234,126 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$13,977,841 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,653,233 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$3,891,667 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,100,942 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,150,970 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$9,065,569 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$10,888,433 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$12,851,884 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,126,435 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,046,724 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$27,912,596 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,238,484 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$27,796,283 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$22,972,899 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,444,105 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$32,945,999 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$21,204,450 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$15,567,062 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$28,677,596 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$1,692,560 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$27,799,316 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$14,597,980 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$10,533,181 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$32,324,602 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at 49%, reflecting his Health and Human Services Secretary role in the Trump administration, prior Trump endorsement, and loyal "MAHA" base appealing to MAGA voters amid Trump's two-term limit. Vice President J.D. Vance follows at 36.5%, bolstered by incumbency advantage and strong showings in recent polls like the March 28 CPAC straw poll (53%) and early March JL Partners survey (53%), though facing crowded field dynamics. Marco Rubio's 20.8% odds have climbed on reports of Trump's praise for his electability as Secretary of State and rising cabinet visibility. Divergence from polling underscores market bets on RFK Jr.'s outsider momentum versus establishment paths, with 2026 midterms looming as a key test.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at 49%, reflecting his Health and Human Services Secretary role in the Trump administration, prior Trump endorsement, and loyal "MAHA" base appealing to MAGA voters amid Trump's two-term limit. Vice President J.D. Vance follows at 36.5%, bolstered by incumbency advantage and strong showings in recent polls like the March 28 CPAC straw poll (53%) and early March JL Partners survey (53%), though facing crowded field dynamics. Marco Rubio's 20.8% odds have climbed on reports of Trump's praise for his electability as Secretary of State and rising cabinet visibility. Divergence from polling underscores market bets on RFK Jr.'s outsider momentum versus establishment paths, with 2026 midterms looming as a key test.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at 49%, reflecting his Health and Human Services Secretary role in the Trump administration, prior Trump endorsement, and loyal "MAHA" base appealing to MAGA voters amid Trump's two-term limit. Vice President J.D. Vance follows at 36.5%, bolstered by incumbency advantage and strong showings in recent polls like the March 28 CPAC straw poll (53%) and early March JL Partners survey (53%), though facing crowded field dynamics. Marco Rubio's 20.8% odds have climbed on reports of Trump's praise for his electability as Secretary of State and rising cabinet visibility. Divergence from polling underscores market bets on RFK Jr.'s outsider momentum versus establishment paths, with 2026 midterms looming as a key test.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at 49%, reflecting his Health and Human Services Secretary role in the Trump administration, prior Trump endorsement, and loyal "MAHA" base appealing to MAGA voters amid Trump's two-term limit. Vice President J.D. Vance follows at 36.5%, bolstered by incumbency advantage and strong showings in recent polls like the March 28 CPAC straw poll (53%) and early March JL Partners survey (53%), though facing crowded field dynamics. Marco Rubio's 20.8% odds have climbed on reports of Trump's praise for his electability as Secretary of State and rising cabinet visibility. Divergence from polling underscores market bets on RFK Jr.'s outsider momentum versus establishment paths, with 2026 midterms looming as a key test.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $487.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.