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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 36.5%

Marco Rubio 20.5%

Tucker Carlson 5.0%

Ron DeSantis 2.8%

Polymarket

$493,369,393 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.5%

Marco Rubio 20.5%

Tucker Carlson 5.0%

Ron DeSantis 2.8%

Polymarket

$493,369,393 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$6,923,025 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,650,343 Vol.

20%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,286,434 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$8,089,326 Vol.

3%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,629,355 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,357,660 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,773,085 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$5,935,186 Vol.

2%

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Rand Paul

$16,014,502 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,382,153 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,334,373 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,100,456 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,751,889 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$9,209,798 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$3,969,986 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,262,027 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,243,293 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,062,501 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$10,988,536 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$12,956,681 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,145,703 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,340,788 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$28,004,432 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$28,356,057 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,237,492 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$23,424,166 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,699,934 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$33,200,095 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$21,428,493 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$15,704,010 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$28,948,172 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$1,791,137 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$14,794,826 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$10,795,053 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$32,596,747 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads trader consensus at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, propelled by his Make America Healthy Again movement's traction, successful cabinet confirmation, and cousin Jack Schlossberg's early March claim of a definite run, appealing to anti-establishment voters. Vice President J.D. Vance trails at 36.5% after a recent odds drop to all-time lows around five days ago, amid competition from Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 20.4%, whose profile surged via Iran diplomacy handling and a strong second-place CPAC straw poll finish on March 28. President Trump's February polling of advisers on Vance versus Rubio underscores succession jockeying, with 2026 midterms looming as a key test.

HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads trader consensus at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, propelled by his Make America Healthy Again movement's traction, successful cabinet confirmation, and cousin Jack Schlossberg's early March claim of a definite run, appealing to anti-establishment voters. Vice President J.D. Vance trails at 36.5% after a recent odds drop to all-time lows around five days ago, amid competition from Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 20.4%, whose profile surged via Iran diplomacy handling and a strong second-place CPAC straw poll finish on March 28. President Trump's February polling of advisers on Vance versus Rubio underscores succession jockeying, with 2026 midterms looming as a key test.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads trader consensus at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, propelled by his Make America Healthy Again movement's traction, successful cabinet confirmation, and cousin Jack Schlossberg's early March claim of a definite run, appealing to anti-establishment voters. Vice President J.D. Vance trails at 36.5% after a recent odds drop to all-time lows around five days ago, amid competition from Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 20.4%, whose profile surged via Iran diplomacy handling and a strong second-place CPAC straw poll finish on March 28. President Trump's February polling of advisers on Vance versus Rubio underscores succession jockeying, with 2026 midterms looming as a key test.

HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads trader consensus at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, propelled by his Make America Healthy Again movement's traction, successful cabinet confirmation, and cousin Jack Schlossberg's early March claim of a definite run, appealing to anti-establishment voters. Vice President J.D. Vance trails at 36.5% after a recent odds drop to all-time lows around five days ago, amid competition from Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 20.4%, whose profile surged via Iran diplomacy handling and a strong second-place CPAC straw poll finish on March 28. President Trump's February polling of advisers on Vance versus Rubio underscores succession jockeying, with 2026 midterms looming as a key test.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $493.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.