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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 36.8%

Marco Rubio 19.8%

Tucker Carlson 4.7%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$517,478,845 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.8%

Marco Rubio 19.8%

Tucker Carlson 4.7%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$517,478,845 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$9,775,880 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,867,454 Vol.

20%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,477,485 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$9,975,961 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,575,148 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$6,014,939 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,935,770 Vol.

2%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,686,562 Vol.

2%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$10,784,742 Vol.

1%

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Rand Paul

$16,467,695 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,997,042 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,475,363 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$23,794,125 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,673,512 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,688,661 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$4,123,144 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,627,702 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$13,316,636 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,397,278 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,342,001 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$11,198,914 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$16,403,926 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,846,754 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$28,754,546 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,472,617 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,238,522 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$22,204,947 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$29,603,326 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$28,803,342 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$2,461,763 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$15,618,444 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$23,746,152 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$34,254,823 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$12,132,791 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$34,743,488 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus favors Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, propelled by his high approval as HHS Secretary for slashing insulin costs 22%, mandating transparent drug pricing, reforming school lunches, and advancing MAHA initiatives, alongside his fresh midterm travel push as a top Trump surrogate and cousin Jack Schlossberg's March endorsement of a definite run. Vice President J.D. Vance trails at 37% despite topping the March CPAC straw poll at 53%, tempered by indecision on a bid amid Iran war policy rifts. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 20% reflects surging donor backing in Trump-hosted events and his foreign policy visibility on Venezuela and recent conflicts.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$517,478,845
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus favors Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, propelled by his high approval as HHS Secretary for slashing insulin costs 22%, mandating transparent drug pricing, reforming school lunches, and advancing MAHA initiatives, alongside his fresh midterm travel push as a top Trump surrogate and cousin Jack Schlossberg's March endorsement of a definite run. Vice President J.D. Vance trails at 37% despite topping the March CPAC straw poll at 53%, tempered by indecision on a bid amid Iran war policy rifts. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 20% reflects surging donor backing in Trump-hosted events and his foreign policy visibility on Venezuela and recent conflicts.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$517,478,845
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $517.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.