Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Vice President JD Vance at 17.7% for the 2028 presidential election winner, narrowly ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 16.8%, with Senator Marco Rubio at 11.1%, reflecting early positioning after Donald Trump's 2024 victory and transition. Vance's VP role cements him as the GOP frontrunner and potential heir apparent, boosted by his visibility in cabinet vetting, while Newsom gains traction amid Democratic recalibration post-Kamala Harris's loss and party leadership vacuum. Rubio's odds surged on Secretary of State nomination buzz. The contest stays tight in this speculative phase, with distant 2027 primaries, 2026 midterms, scandals, endorsements, and executive performance poised to drive separation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedPresidential Election Winner 2028
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance 17.6%
Gavin Newsom 16.8%
Marco Rubio 11.0%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.7%
$455,246,084 Vol.
$455,246,084 Vol.

JD Vance
18%

Gavin Newsom
17%

Marco Rubio
11%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
3%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
3%

Josh Shapiro
2%

Donald Trump
2%

Pete Buttigieg
2%

JB Pritzker
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

James Talarico
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Eric Trump
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

LeBron James
<1%
JD Vance 17.6%
Gavin Newsom 16.8%
Marco Rubio 11.0%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.7%
$455,246,084 Vol.
$455,246,084 Vol.

JD Vance
18%

Gavin Newsom
17%

Marco Rubio
11%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
3%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
3%

Josh Shapiro
2%

Donald Trump
2%

Pete Buttigieg
2%

JB Pritzker
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

James Talarico
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Eric Trump
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

LeBron James
<1%
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Market Opened: Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Vice President JD Vance at 17.7% for the 2028 presidential election winner, narrowly ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 16.8%, with Senator Marco Rubio at 11.1%, reflecting early positioning after Donald Trump's 2024 victory and transition. Vance's VP role cements him as the GOP frontrunner and potential heir apparent, boosted by his visibility in cabinet vetting, while Newsom gains traction amid Democratic recalibration post-Kamala Harris's loss and party leadership vacuum. Rubio's odds surged on Secretary of State nomination buzz. The contest stays tight in this speculative phase, with distant 2027 primaries, 2026 midterms, scandals, endorsements, and executive performance poised to drive separation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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