With the 2024 election results still fresh, trader consensus on Polymarket favors Vice President-elect JD Vance at 18% implied probability as the narrow GOP frontrunner, buoyed by his selection as running mate and positioning as Donald Trump's potential successor amid early Republican succession talks. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely at 17%, reflecting his rising profile as a Democratic leader criticizing the incoming administration and building national donor networks post-Kamala Harris's defeat. Senator Marco Rubio's 11% share stems from his Trump alignment and cabinet speculation, keeping the top trio tight in this nascent market. The race remains fluid due to the three-year horizon, vulnerable to 2026 midterms, Trump administration performance, economic trends, scandals, or health events that could elevate or derail contenders in the wide-open fields.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedPresidential Election Winner 2028
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance 17.9%
Gavin Newsom 17.0%
Marco Rubio 11.0%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.7%
$455,780,114 Vol.
$455,780,114 Vol.

JD Vance
18%

Gavin Newsom
17%

Marco Rubio
11%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
3%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
3%

Josh Shapiro
2%

Donald Trump
2%

Pete Buttigieg
2%

JB Pritzker
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

James Talarico
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Eric Trump
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

LeBron James
<1%
JD Vance 17.9%
Gavin Newsom 17.0%
Marco Rubio 11.0%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.7%
$455,780,114 Vol.
$455,780,114 Vol.

JD Vance
18%

Gavin Newsom
17%

Marco Rubio
11%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
3%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
3%

Josh Shapiro
2%

Donald Trump
2%

Pete Buttigieg
2%

JB Pritzker
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

James Talarico
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Eric Trump
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

LeBron James
<1%
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Market Opened: Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
With the 2024 election results still fresh, trader consensus on Polymarket favors Vice President-elect JD Vance at 18% implied probability as the narrow GOP frontrunner, buoyed by his selection as running mate and positioning as Donald Trump's potential successor amid early Republican succession talks. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely at 17%, reflecting his rising profile as a Democratic leader criticizing the incoming administration and building national donor networks post-Kamala Harris's defeat. Senator Marco Rubio's 11% share stems from his Trump alignment and cabinet speculation, keeping the top trio tight in this nascent market. The race remains fluid due to the three-year horizon, vulnerable to 2026 midterms, Trump administration performance, economic trends, scandals, or health events that could elevate or derail contenders in the wide-open fields.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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