JD Vance edges Gavin Newsom in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election winner, reflecting his momentum as Donald Trump's vice presidential nominee and strong showing in the October 1 VP debate against Tim Walz, which solidified his appeal to the GOP base amid Trump's narrow polling lead over Kamala Harris. Newsom's near-parity stems from his national profile as California governor, aggressive fundraising, and positioning as a Democratic alternative if Harris falters in battleground states. The race stays tight due to the 2024 outcome's dominance—shaping party nominations, incumbency advantages, and early field dynamics—with no primaries until 2027; separation could arise from November 2024 results, 2026 midterms, scandals, or high-profile endorsements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedPresidential Election Winner 2028
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance 17.8%
Gavin Newsom 17.0%
Marco Rubio 11.0%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.7%
$455,810,245 Vol.
$455,810,245 Vol.

JD Vance
18%

Gavin Newsom
17%

Marco Rubio
11%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
3%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
3%

Josh Shapiro
2%

Donald Trump
2%

Pete Buttigieg
2%

JB Pritzker
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

James Talarico
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Eric Trump
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

LeBron James
<1%
JD Vance 17.8%
Gavin Newsom 17.0%
Marco Rubio 11.0%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.7%
$455,810,245 Vol.
$455,810,245 Vol.

JD Vance
18%

Gavin Newsom
17%

Marco Rubio
11%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
3%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
3%

Josh Shapiro
2%

Donald Trump
2%

Pete Buttigieg
2%

JB Pritzker
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

James Talarico
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Eric Trump
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

LeBron James
<1%
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Market Opened: Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
JD Vance edges Gavin Newsom in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election winner, reflecting his momentum as Donald Trump's vice presidential nominee and strong showing in the October 1 VP debate against Tim Walz, which solidified his appeal to the GOP base amid Trump's narrow polling lead over Kamala Harris. Newsom's near-parity stems from his national profile as California governor, aggressive fundraising, and positioning as a Democratic alternative if Harris falters in battleground states. The race stays tight due to the 2024 outcome's dominance—shaping party nominations, incumbency advantages, and early field dynamics—with no primaries until 2027; separation could arise from November 2024 results, 2026 midterms, scandals, or high-profile endorsements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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