VP JD Vance leads early 2028 presidential winner odds at 18% over California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 17%, reflecting Republican continuity after Donald Trump's 2024 victory and Vance's incumbency advantage as vice president, akin to historical paths like George H.W. Bush's 1988 run. Newsom's near-parity draws from his national profile-building through Trump administration critiques and Democratic fundraising dominance post-Kamala Harris's defeat. With the election over three years distant and no primaries underway, the razor-thin top reflects trader consensus on an open, fluid field—low probabilities signal high uncertainty. Key swing factors include 2026 midterms, economic trends, cabinet roles for figures like Marco Rubio (11%), and scandals that could reshape paths to victory or Electoral College math.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedPresidential Election Winner 2028
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance 17.8%
Gavin Newsom 17.3%
Marco Rubio 10.9%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.7%
$456,159,983 Vol.
$456,159,983 Vol.

JD Vance
18%

Gavin Newsom
17%

Marco Rubio
11%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
3%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
3%

Josh Shapiro
2%

Donald Trump
2%

Pete Buttigieg
2%

JB Pritzker
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
1%

Andy Beshear
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

James Talarico
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Eric Trump
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

LeBron James
<1%
JD Vance 17.8%
Gavin Newsom 17.3%
Marco Rubio 10.9%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.7%
$456,159,983 Vol.
$456,159,983 Vol.

JD Vance
18%

Gavin Newsom
17%

Marco Rubio
11%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
3%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
3%

Josh Shapiro
2%

Donald Trump
2%

Pete Buttigieg
2%

JB Pritzker
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
1%

Andy Beshear
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

James Talarico
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Eric Trump
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

LeBron James
<1%
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Market Opened: Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
VP JD Vance leads early 2028 presidential winner odds at 18% over California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 17%, reflecting Republican continuity after Donald Trump's 2024 victory and Vance's incumbency advantage as vice president, akin to historical paths like George H.W. Bush's 1988 run. Newsom's near-parity draws from his national profile-building through Trump administration critiques and Democratic fundraising dominance post-Kamala Harris's defeat. With the election over three years distant and no primaries underway, the razor-thin top reflects trader consensus on an open, fluid field—low probabilities signal high uncertainty. Key swing factors include 2026 midterms, economic trends, cabinet roles for figures like Marco Rubio (11%), and scandals that could reshape paths to victory or Electoral College math.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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