JD Vance holds a slim lead at 17.8% implied probability in the 2028 Presidential Election Winner market, edged by Gavin Newsom at 16.8%, as traders price heavy dependence on November 2024 results. Vance's position as Republican VP nominee under Donald Trump—who leads national polling averages and key swing states—positions him as heir apparent for GOP primaries if Trump wins re-election. Newsom, California's governor, surges on the Democratic side through national tours and critiques of Kamala Harris's faltering campaign post her September debate performance. Marco Rubio trails at 10.9% amid his Senate profile and prior VP vetting. This tight field reflects the distant timeline, absent primaries, and fluid post-2024 dynamics; 2026 midterms, scandals, or early endorsements could widen gaps.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedPresidential Election Winner 2028
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance 17.8%
Gavin Newsom 16.8%
Marco Rubio 10.9%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.7%
$455,543,342 Vol.
$455,543,342 Vol.

JD Vance
18%

Gavin Newsom
17%

Marco Rubio
11%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
3%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
3%

Josh Shapiro
2%

Donald Trump
2%

Pete Buttigieg
2%

JB Pritzker
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

James Talarico
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Eric Trump
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

LeBron James
<1%
JD Vance 17.8%
Gavin Newsom 16.8%
Marco Rubio 10.9%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.7%
$455,543,342 Vol.
$455,543,342 Vol.

JD Vance
18%

Gavin Newsom
17%

Marco Rubio
11%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
3%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
3%

Josh Shapiro
2%

Donald Trump
2%

Pete Buttigieg
2%

JB Pritzker
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

James Talarico
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Eric Trump
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

LeBron James
<1%
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Market Opened: Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
JD Vance holds a slim lead at 17.8% implied probability in the 2028 Presidential Election Winner market, edged by Gavin Newsom at 16.8%, as traders price heavy dependence on November 2024 results. Vance's position as Republican VP nominee under Donald Trump—who leads national polling averages and key swing states—positions him as heir apparent for GOP primaries if Trump wins re-election. Newsom, California's governor, surges on the Democratic side through national tours and critiques of Kamala Harris's faltering campaign post her September debate performance. Marco Rubio trails at 10.9% amid his Senate profile and prior VP vetting. This tight field reflects the distant timeline, absent primaries, and fluid post-2024 dynamics; 2026 midterms, scandals, or early endorsements could widen gaps.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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