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Politics·Afhganistan

Pakistan strikes Afghanistan by...?

Market icon
Politics·Afhganistan

Pakistan strikes Afghanistan by...?

$50,068 Vol.

Feb 27, 2026
Polymarket

$50,068 Vol.

Polymarket

February 27 (AFT)

$19,055 Vol.

Yes

February 28 (AFT)

$6,571 Vol.

Yes

March 31 (AFT)

$24,443 Vol.

Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Afghanistan or any official Afghan embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Afghanistan Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Pakistani military forces that impact Afghan ground territory or any official Afghan embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Afghan soil is hit by a Pakistani missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Afghan territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Pakistani ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$50,068
End Date
Feb 28, 2026
Created At
Feb 26, 2026, 2:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Afghanistan or any official Afghan embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Afghanistan Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Pakistani military forces that impact Afghan ground territory or any official Afghan embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Afghan soil is hit by a Pakistani missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Afghan territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Pakistani ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Pakistan strikes Afghanistan by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "February 27 (AFT)" at 100%, followed by "February 28 (AFT)" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Pakistan strikes Afghanistan by...?" has generated $50.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Pakistan strikes Afghanistan by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Pakistan strikes Afghanistan by...?" is "February 27 (AFT)" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "February 28 (AFT)" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Pakistan strikes Afghanistan by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.