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Politics·Primaries

Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner

Jo Rae Perkins 60%

David Brock Smith 26.2%

Russell McAlmond 5.3%

David Burch 1.6%

Polymarket

$71,015 Vol.

Jo Rae Perkins 60%

David Brock Smith 26.2%

Russell McAlmond 5.3%

David Burch 1.6%

Polymarket

$71,015 Vol.

Jo Rae Perkins

$11,618 Vol.

60%

David Brock Smith

$1,803 Vol.

26%

Russell McAlmond

$11,500 Vol.

5%

David Burch

$22,261 Vol.

2%

Tim Skelton

$8,073 Vol.

2%

Brent Barker

$567 Vol.

1%

Deborah C. Brown

$567 Vol.

1%

Joe Johnson

$8,726 Vol.

1%

Douglas T. Muck Jr.

$5,901 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oregon. If no 2026 Oregon Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Jo Rae Perkins leads trader consensus at 60% implied probability in the Oregon Republican U.S. Senate primary due to her strong name recognition from winning GOP nominations in 2020 and 2022 against Sen. Ron Wyden, appealing to the low-turnout conservative base in Oregon's closed primary system. State Sen. David Brock Smith, who announced his bid on March 3 emphasizing public safety, homelessness, and working families, has climbed to 26% on his legislative experience and recent campaigning, including a Clackamas County GOP event. The fragmented field, with Russell McAlmond at 5% and others below 2%, reflects limited alternatives ahead of the May 19 primary, when ballots mail in early May; no public polls have emerged to challenge this positioning.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oregon.

If no 2026 Oregon Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$71,015
End Date
May 19, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 15, 2025, 8:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oregon. If no 2026 Oregon Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oregon. If no 2026 Oregon Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Jo Rae Perkins leads trader consensus at 60% implied probability in the Oregon Republican U.S. Senate primary due to her strong name recognition from winning GOP nominations in 2020 and 2022 against Sen. Ron Wyden, appealing to the low-turnout conservative base in Oregon's closed primary system. State Sen. David Brock Smith, who announced his bid on March 3 emphasizing public safety, homelessness, and working families, has climbed to 26% on his legislative experience and recent campaigning, including a Clackamas County GOP event. The fragmented field, with Russell McAlmond at 5% and others below 2%, reflects limited alternatives ahead of the May 19 primary, when ballots mail in early May; no public polls have emerged to challenge this positioning.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oregon.

If no 2026 Oregon Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$71,015
End Date
May 19, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 15, 2025, 8:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oregon. If no 2026 Oregon Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jo Rae Perkins" at 60%, followed by "David Brock Smith" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 60¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 60% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner" has generated $71K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 16, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner" is "Jo Rae Perkins" at 60%, meaning the market assigns a 60% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "David Brock Smith" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.