Trader consensus has locked in a near-certain 98.9% implied probability for "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition, driven primarily by the Federal Reserve's consistent signaling of no interest rate change at the July 30-31 FOMC meeting, aligning with June's dot plot and CME FedWatch Tool odds exceeding 95% for status quo. Powell's recent congressional testimony emphasized data-dependent patience amid cooling but sticky inflation, reinforcing hawkish caution without surprises. Cultural buzz on finance Twitter echoes this as peak "Powell predictability," with no major economic shocks like a sudden jobs plunge or geopolitical flare-up to disrupt. Realistic upsets—such as unexpectedly hot CPI data prompting a hike or dovish pivot—are slim, below 2%, given robust historical no-change precedents in similar cycles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$47,446 Vol.
$47,446 Vol.
$47,446 Vol.
$47,446 Vol.
and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair
- Jerome Powell federally charged
- Jerome Powell arrested
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEHJeromePowellEdition.pdf
Market Opened: Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair
- Jerome Powell federally charged
- Jerome Powell arrested
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEHJeromePowellEdition.pdf
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus has locked in a near-certain 98.9% implied probability for "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition, driven primarily by the Federal Reserve's consistent signaling of no interest rate change at the July 30-31 FOMC meeting, aligning with June's dot plot and CME FedWatch Tool odds exceeding 95% for status quo. Powell's recent congressional testimony emphasized data-dependent patience amid cooling but sticky inflation, reinforcing hawkish caution without surprises. Cultural buzz on finance Twitter echoes this as peak "Powell predictability," with no major economic shocks like a sudden jobs plunge or geopolitical flare-up to disrupt. Realistic upsets—such as unexpectedly hot CPI data prompting a hike or dovish pivot—are slim, below 2%, given robust historical no-change precedents in similar cycles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions