Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 44.5% chance of no new UK Prime Minister in 2026, reflecting Keir Starmer's survival of a February leadership challenge sparked by fallout from Peter Mandelson's Jeffrey Epstein ties and subsequent aide resignations, which failed to unseat him despite record-low approval ratings around -50%. Persistent Labour polling deficits to Reform UK and internal discontent position Angela Rayner—former Deputy PM who resigned amid the turmoil but eyes a Cabinet return—as the leading successor at 16.5%, buoyed by her strong backing in party betting markets. Ed Miliband at 7.5% benefits from recent praise as a policy heavyweight, while Reform figures like Rupert Lowe and Nigel Farage trail amid no-confidence vote or snap election signals. May 2026 local elections loom as a key test.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNo Next PM in 2026 45%
Angela Rayner 17%
Ed Miliband 7.5%
Wes Streeting 5%
$4,274,938 Vol.
$4,274,938 Vol.
No Next PM in 2026
45%
Angela Rayner
17%
Ed Miliband
8%
Wes Streeting
5%
Rupert Lowe
3%
Andy Burnham
3%
Nigel Farage
3%
Al Carns
1%
Yvette Cooper
1%
Shabana Mahmood
1%
David Lammy
1%
Lucy Powell
1%
Kemi Badenoch
<1%
Rachel Reeves
<1%
Darren Jones
<1%
Robert Jenrick
<1%
James Cleverly
<1%
Boris Johnson
<1%
Ed Davey
<1%
Bridget Phillipson
<1%
No Next PM in 2026 45%
Angela Rayner 17%
Ed Miliband 7.5%
Wes Streeting 5%
$4,274,938 Vol.
$4,274,938 Vol.
No Next PM in 2026
45%
Angela Rayner
17%
Ed Miliband
8%
Wes Streeting
5%
Rupert Lowe
3%
Andy Burnham
3%
Nigel Farage
3%
Al Carns
1%
Yvette Cooper
1%
Shabana Mahmood
1%
David Lammy
1%
Lucy Powell
1%
Kemi Badenoch
<1%
Rachel Reeves
<1%
Darren Jones
<1%
Robert Jenrick
<1%
James Cleverly
<1%
Boris Johnson
<1%
Ed Davey
<1%
Bridget Phillipson
<1%
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 5, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 44.5% chance of no new UK Prime Minister in 2026, reflecting Keir Starmer's survival of a February leadership challenge sparked by fallout from Peter Mandelson's Jeffrey Epstein ties and subsequent aide resignations, which failed to unseat him despite record-low approval ratings around -50%. Persistent Labour polling deficits to Reform UK and internal discontent position Angela Rayner—former Deputy PM who resigned amid the turmoil but eyes a Cabinet return—as the leading successor at 16.5%, buoyed by her strong backing in party betting markets. Ed Miliband at 7.5% benefits from recent praise as a policy heavyweight, while Reform figures like Rupert Lowe and Nigel Farage trail amid no-confidence vote or snap election signals. May 2026 local elections loom as a key test.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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