Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election produced a narrow 176-173 seat majority for the center-left bloc led by Social Democrats under Magdalena Andersson, yet internal divisions have blocked government formation despite two mandates from the speaker. Andersson’s failed coalition talks and the October 15 prime minister vote—widely expected to reject a single-party Social Democratic government—have shifted momentum, with recent Novus and Verian polls showing Moderates gaining sharply, Ulf Kristersson overtaking Andersson in voter trust, and the right-wing bloc closing ground. Traders nonetheless price Andersson highest, reflecting the center-left’s seat advantage and the procedural path that could still allow her bloc to prevail before alternatives like Kristersson gain traction in subsequent rounds.