Name: Next Prime Minister of Thailand
Start: 2025-12-16T00:37:32.219718Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00Z

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Legislative elections are expected to be held in Thailand on February 8, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially selected and appointed to be Prime Minister of Thailand following the 2026 general legislative election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally selected for the role of Prime Minister and appointed to the role by the king of Thailand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is selected and appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Thailand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Anutin Charnvirakul

Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut

Julapun Amornvivat

Paetongtarn Shinawatra

Chaikasem Nitisiri

Prawit Wongsuwan

Next Prime Minister of Thailand

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Thailand in January or February, 2026. The Thai House of Representatives will select the next Prime Minister of Thailand following this election.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next prime minister of Thailand is officially selected by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Any prime minister formally selected by passing a vote in the Thai House of Representatives within this market’s timeframe will count, regardless of whether they have been officially appointed by the King of Thailand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Thailand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31?

The Thai House of Representatives was dissolved on December 12, 2025, triggering a snap legislative election within 45-60 days to elect members of the Thai House of Representatives (Sapha Phuthaen Ratsadon).

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Thai House of Representatives as a result of this election.

If voting in the Thai legislative election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Thai House of Representatives.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Thai government, specifically the Thai Election Commission.

Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Hungary in April or May 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is next officially appointed and confirmed as Prime Minister of Hungary following the 2026 parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected and appointed to the role of Prime Minister. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

The 2025 Tongan general elections will be held on November 30, 2025, to elect members of the Legislative Assembly of Tonga (Fale Alea ʻo Tonga).

This market will resolve according to the next Prime Minister of Tonga following the election.

Any interim/caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no next Prime Minister of Tonga is instated by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "Other."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Tonga, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Dr ‘Aisake Valu Eke be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the election?

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. 

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

The ruling coalition of the Netherlands collapsed on June 3, 2025. New parliamentary elections are scheduled for October 29.

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of the Netherlands following the 2025 parliamentary election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Netherlands; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?

This market will resolve according to the first individual that ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027?

Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026. 

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in Nepal’s House of Representatives (Pratinidhi Sabha) as a result of this election.

If voting in the next Nepali election for the House of Representatives does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Commission, Nepal (https://election.gov.np/np/).

Will Nepali Congress win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?

A United Nations Secretary-General selection is expected to be held in 2026 to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations.

This market will resolve according to the listed person who is officially chosen to be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations in this selection process.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder Secretary-Generals appointed before the next Secretary-General selection will not count.

If no United Nations Secretary-General selection takes place or the results of this selection are not known by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Alicia Bárcena be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.

If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament. 

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).

Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Costa Rica on 1 February 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Costa Rican Legislative Assembly.

If voting in the Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Legislative Assembly.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Costa Rica's Supreme Electoral Tribunal (Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones) (https://www.tse.go.cr/index.html).

Will PPSO win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Thailand officially declares war against Cambodia, or Cambodia officially declares war against Thailand by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A declaration of war must be an official act or statement by the national government of Thailand or Cambodia that explicitly either declares war or otherwise unambiguously describes the relationship with the other state as being in a state of war. 

Announcements of military action, border clashes, or other hostilities without an explicit declaration of war will not qualify. Only Thailand’s or Cambodia’s national authorities declaring war on the other will suffice .

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official publications and statements from the governments of Thailand and Cambodia. A consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm such an act or statement.

Thailand x Cambodia declare war by Dec 31?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Costa Rica on February 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the Costa Rican Legislative Assembly in this election.

If voting in the Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between this party and any other for the second most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Legislative Assembly.

This market will resolve based on the election results as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Costa Rica's Supreme Electoral Tribunal (Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones) (https://www.tse.go.cr/index.html).

Will FA win the second most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Thailand and Cambodia between December 8, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterwards.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Thailand and Cambodia, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia has been reached will suffice.

Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Japanese general election is scheduled between November 10, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Japanese election is announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place will have no effect on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Japan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Japanese Snap Election Called by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Thailand announces it has attained, or otherwise attains control of the Preah Vihear temple complex in Cambodia (https://maps.app.goo.gl/rCd3ghfaZxQdPW7MA) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Thailand announces it has control of the temple complex, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of contradictory reporting.

If Thailand comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.

Once Thailand captures the temple, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be announcements made by Thailand and Cambodia, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Thailand capture Preah Vihear temple by Dec 31?

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. 

This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (mayor or magistrate) elections for Taiwan’s major special municipalities, counties, and cities during these elections.

A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.

Taiwan’s local governments include the following cities, special municipalities, and counties:

Cities/special municipalities (mayoral elections): Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Taichung City, Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, Keelung City, Hsinchu City, Chiayi City

Counties (magistrate elections): Yilan County, Hsinchu County, Miaoli County, Changhua County, Nantou County, Yunlin County, Chiayi County, Pingtung County, Taitung County, Hualien County, Penghu County, Lienchiang County, Kinmen County

Only elections for the listed cities, special municipalities or counties will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.

In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant head of local government elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose English name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group.

Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections aren’t known by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for April 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another Canada election called in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another Canada election called by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


French election called by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Spanish general election is scheduled between October 21, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Spanish election is announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Spain however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027.  This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. 

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

The 2026 Seoul mayoral election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026 to elect the next mayor of Seoul.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.

Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Uganda on January 15, 2026. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote outright, a second round of elections will be scheduled.

This market will resolve to the candidate that wins this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Ugandan Government, specifically the Ugandan Electoral Commission (https://www.ec.or.ug/).

Will Yoweri Kaguta Museveni win the 2026 Ugandan presidential election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Romanian parliamentary election is officially scheduled between July 10 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market is about whether a date for the next Romanian parliamentary election is formally announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Romania Parliamentary Election called in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Liberal Party of Canada holds a majority of seats in the House of Commons for any period of time between December 12, 2025 and June 30, 2026, otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "No" if Parliament is dissolved before June 30, 2026. 

This markets resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the Liberal Party of Canada, not any alliance or coalition of which it may be a part.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government or a consensus of credible reporting.

Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives.

If voting in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Senate.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Will PLC win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea on December 28, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Guinean government, including the Guinean Supreme Court (Cour suprême), the Guinean Constitutional Court (Cour Constitutionnelle), or the newly established Directorate General of Elections (Direction générale des élections or DGE). If these listed sources disagree, they will be prioritized in the following order: Supreme Court, Constitutional Court, Directorate General of Elections.

Will Mamady Doumbouya win the 2025 Guinean presidential election?

Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.

If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).

Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?

The 2025 Central African Republic general election is scheduled to be held on December 28, 2025, to elect the 140 members of the National Assembly (CAR’s unicameral parliament).

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the most seats in the Central African Republic National Assembly as a result of the next Central African parliamentary election.

If initial voting in the next Central African parliamentary election does not occur by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market may remain open to consider any second-round votes held to determine winners in individual single-member constituencies, as long as the remaining undecided seats can still change which party wins the most seats overall, or maximally until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, after which the market will resolve based on the results available at that time.

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Government of the Central African Republic, specifically the National Elections Authority (https://www.ane-rca.org/).

Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?

The 2025 Dutch general election is scheduled to take place on October 29, 2025.

This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2025 Dutch general election.

If the next Dutch Government after the election is not announced by October 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No Coalition by October 31".

A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister.

This market may resolve once the first government is officially announced and sworn in by the monarch, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.

The following parties will be to be considered for this market: PVV, GroenLinks–PvdA, VVD, CDA, D66, JA21. All other parties (including but not limited to SP, BBB, NSC, DENK, PvdD, FvD, SGP, CU, and Volt) will not be considered. 

Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option (along with any other parties), that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition.

For example:

If the governing coalition includes GL–PvdA + VVD + CDA + JA21, but no option explicitly lists those four together, the market will resolve to “VVD + CDA + JA21”.

If the governing coalition includes PVV + VVD + CDA + D66, the option “PVV + VVD + CDA + D66” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PVV + VVD + CDA” will resolve to “No".

If the governing coalition does not match any listed option (e.g. the governing coalition is D66 + JA21) this market will resolve to “Other”. 

In the event that multiple market options each contain an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed coalition which received the greater number of valid votes.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of the Netherlands.

Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Spain's Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, is removed from power for any length of time between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation, is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister of Spain within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain in 2025?

The 2026 Gyeonggi Province gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026 to elect the next Governor of Gyeonggi Province.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.

Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Texas, scheduled to take place on March 3, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Texas Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Texas Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Greg Abbott win the 2026 Texas Governor Republican primary election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date for the next Polish parliamentary election is set between June 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Polish election is announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Poland however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polish snap election called in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Tennessee, scheduled to take place on August 6, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Tennessee Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Tennessee Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Marsha Blackburn win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Republican primary election?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament  in this election.

If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. 

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).

Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?

The Gangwon Province gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in South Korea on June 3, 2026 to elect the next governor of Gangwon Province. 

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (https://www.nec.go.kr/).

Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mark Carney announces he is resigning as head of the Liberal Party of Canada or otherwise ceases to be head of the Liberal Party of Canada for any length of time between April 28, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Mark Carney's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Mark Carney or the Liberal Party of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Mark Carney out as leader of Liberals in 2025?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.

If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. 

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales  (https://senedd.wales/).

Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in the Central African Republic on December 28, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote outright, a second round of elections will be scheduled.

This market will resolve to the candidate who wins this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Government of the Central African Republic, specifically the National Elections Authority (Autorité nationale des élections or ANE on https://www.ane-rca.org/). 

If the election outcome is ambiguous and the information from the specified resolution source is not definitive, this market will resolve to the candidate who takes office the following term.

Will Faustin-Archange Touadéra win the 2025 Central African Republic presidential election?

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Benin on January 11, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Benin National Assembly (Assemblée nationale) in this election.

If voting in the Benin parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Benin National Assembly. If a senate is added to the Benin parliament, this market will resolve according to the number of seats won in the National Assembly, excluding the Senate.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Benin government, specifically the constitutional court of Benin (Cour constitutionnelle du Bénin) (https://courconstitutionnelle.bj/fr).

Will Union Progressiste pour le Renouveau (UPR) win the most seats in the 2026 Benin parliamentary election?

The 2026 Costa Rican general election is scheduled for February 1, 2026. The President of Costa Rica is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 40% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones (https://www.tse.go.cr/index.html).

Next Prime Minister of Thailand

Anutin Charnvirakul
$18 Vol.
63%

Chaikasem Nitisiri
$26 Vol.
16%

Julapun Amornvivat
$5 Vol.
16%

Paetongtarn Shinawatra
$55 Vol.
15%

Prawit Wongsuwan
$5 Vol.
13%

Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut
$5 Vol.
11%

Market Context

Next Prime Minister of Thailand

Rules

Next Prime Minister of Thailand

Market Context

Next Prime Minister of Thailand

About

Related

Next Prime Minister of Thailand

Anutin Charnvirakul$18 Vol.63%buy Yes72¢buy No46¢

Chaikasem Nitisiri$26 Vol.16%buy Yes29¢buy No96¢

Julapun Amornvivat$5 Vol.16%buy Yes26¢buy No94¢

Paetongtarn Shinawatra$55 Vol.15%buy Yes23¢buy No94¢

Prawit Wongsuwan$5 Vol.13%buy Yes20¢buy No94¢

Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut$5 Vol.11%buy Yes16¢buy No94¢

Market Context

Next Prime Minister of Thailand

Rules

Next Prime Minister of Thailand

Market Context

Next Prime Minister of Thailand

About

Related

Anutin Charnvirakul
$18 Vol.
63%

Chaikasem Nitisiri
$26 Vol.
16%

Julapun Amornvivat
$5 Vol.
16%

Paetongtarn Shinawatra
$55 Vol.
15%

Prawit Wongsuwan
$5 Vol.
13%

Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut
$5 Vol.
11%