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Next leader out of power before 2027?

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Next leader out of power before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

Orbán - Hungary PM 60%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 16%

Netanyahu - Israel PM 6.6%

Starmer - UK PM 4.7%

Polymarket

$3,351,360 Vol.

Orbán - Hungary PM 60%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 16%

Netanyahu - Israel PM 6.6%

Starmer - UK PM 4.7%

Polymarket

$3,351,360 Vol.

Orbán - Hungary PM

$29,809 Vol.

60%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$20,416 Vol.

16%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$1,011,897 Vol.

7%

Starmer - UK PM

$559,950 Vol.

5%

Trump - USA President

$213,780 Vol.

2%

Putin - Russia President

$353,674 Vol.

2%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$351,646 Vol.

2%

None before 2027

$14,809 Vol.

1%

Macron - France President

$73,165 Vol.

1%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$14,247 Vol.

1%

Petro - Colombia President

$15,675 Vol.

1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$62,641 Vol.

1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$41,965 Vol.

1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$42,834 Vol.

1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$13,707 Vol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$30,486 Vol.

<1%

Lecornu - France PM

$57,462 Vol.

<1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$26,574 Vol.

<1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$77,898 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$26,734 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$61,123 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$115,236 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$38,611 Vol.

<1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$30,753 Vol.

<1%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$66,271 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's exit before 2027 at 59.5%, driven by the April 12 parliamentary election where his 16-year rule faces a pivotal challenge from rival Péter Magyar, who leads in recent polls amid massive rival rallies on March 15 and allegations of ruling party voter intimidation. Cuba's Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 15.5% as U.S. pressure under President Trump escalates for his ouster amid economic crisis, power grid failures, and speculation of a Castro successor, with recent talks signaling potential leadership shift. Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu's 6.5% reflects tight 2026 election polls showing no war-time boost, while UK PM Keir Starmer and U.S. President Donald Trump face routine opposition noise but low impeachment risks given partisan dynamics.

Trader consensus prices Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's exit before 2027 at 59.5%, driven by the April 12 parliamentary election where his 16-year rule faces a pivotal challenge from rival Péter Magyar, who leads in recent polls amid massive rival rallies on March 15 and allegations of ruling party voter intimidation. Cuba's Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 15.5% as U.S. pressure under President Trump escalates for his ouster amid economic crisis, power grid failures, and speculation of a Castro successor, with recent talks signaling potential leadership shift. Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu's 6.5% reflects tight 2026 election polls showing no war-time boost, while UK PM Keir Starmer and U.S. President Donald Trump face routine opposition noise but low impeachment risks given partisan dynamics.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's exit before 2027 at 59.5%, driven by the April 12 parliamentary election where his 16-year rule faces a pivotal challenge from rival Péter Magyar, who leads in recent polls amid massive rival rallies on March 15 and allegations of ruling party voter intimidation. Cuba's Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 15.5% as U.S. pressure under President Trump escalates for his ouster amid economic crisis, power grid failures, and speculation of a Castro successor, with recent talks signaling potential leadership shift. Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu's 6.5% reflects tight 2026 election polls showing no war-time boost, while UK PM Keir Starmer and U.S. President Donald Trump face routine opposition noise but low impeachment risks given partisan dynamics.

Trader consensus prices Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's exit before 2027 at 59.5%, driven by the April 12 parliamentary election where his 16-year rule faces a pivotal challenge from rival Péter Magyar, who leads in recent polls amid massive rival rallies on March 15 and allegations of ruling party voter intimidation. Cuba's Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 15.5% as U.S. pressure under President Trump escalates for his ouster amid economic crisis, power grid failures, and speculation of a Castro successor, with recent talks signaling potential leadership shift. Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu's 6.5% reflects tight 2026 election polls showing no war-time boost, while UK PM Keir Starmer and U.S. President Donald Trump face routine opposition noise but low impeachment risks given partisan dynamics.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next leader out of power before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 25 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Orbán - Hungary PM" at 60%, followed by "Díaz-Canel - Cuba President" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 60¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 60% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next leader out of power before 2027?" has generated $3.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 3, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next leader out of power before 2027?," browse the 25 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next leader out of power before 2027?" is "Orbán - Hungary PM" at 60%, meaning the market assigns a 60% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Díaz-Canel - Cuba President" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next leader out of power before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.