Trader consensus on Polymarket positions John Ternus, Apple's senior vice president of Hardware Engineering, as the frontrunner at 35.5% implied probability to succeed Tim Cook, propelled by Bloomberg's in-depth March 22 profile detailing his rising influence, expanded oversight of product design, and role in reversing perceived hardware quality declines amid Apple's AI wearables and smart home push. Recent April interviews alongside marketing chief Greg Joswiak (9.4%) on future MacBook innovations, AI advancements, and spatial computing have heightened visibility for both, while supply chain head Sabih Khan (4.5%) and software leader Craig Federighi (2.9%) trail amid less buzz. Cook's March denial of imminent retirement underscores ongoing uncertainty in the closely watched executive succession.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJohn Ternus 36%
Greg Joswiak 9.8%
Sabih Khan 5%
Craig Federighi 2.9%
$676,282 Vol.
$676,282 Vol.
John Ternus
36%
Greg Joswiak
10%
Sabih Khan
5%
Craig Federighi
3%
John Ternus 36%
Greg Joswiak 9.8%
Sabih Khan 5%
Craig Federighi 2.9%
$676,282 Vol.
$676,282 Vol.
John Ternus
36%
Greg Joswiak
10%
Sabih Khan
5%
Craig Federighi
3%
An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether the announced replacement actually becomes the next CEO of Apple.
Interim CEOs will not qualify.
If no permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source will be public statements from Apple Inc.
Market Opened: Nov 18, 2025, 3:08 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether the announced replacement actually becomes the next CEO of Apple.
Interim CEOs will not qualify.
If no permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source will be public statements from Apple Inc.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket positions John Ternus, Apple's senior vice president of Hardware Engineering, as the frontrunner at 35.5% implied probability to succeed Tim Cook, propelled by Bloomberg's in-depth March 22 profile detailing his rising influence, expanded oversight of product design, and role in reversing perceived hardware quality declines amid Apple's AI wearables and smart home push. Recent April interviews alongside marketing chief Greg Joswiak (9.4%) on future MacBook innovations, AI advancements, and spatial computing have heightened visibility for both, while supply chain head Sabih Khan (4.5%) and software leader Craig Federighi (2.9%) trail amid less buzz. Cook's March denial of imminent retirement underscores ongoing uncertainty in the closely watched executive succession.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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