Apple's longstanding practice of launching a new iPhone model each September underpins the 95.2% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. The company has followed this annual hardware cycle without interruption for more than a decade, supported by predictable supply-chain timelines for components like advanced chips and displays. Traders view this consistency as highly reliable, especially given ongoing development of features such as improved camera systems and software updates tied to the next iOS version. While realistic disruptions remain possible, including production delays from manufacturing issues or unexpected regulatory reviews in major markets, such events have rarely shifted Apple's overall yearly cadence in the past.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$104,780 Vol.
$104,780 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$104,780 Vol.
$104,780 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's longstanding practice of launching a new iPhone model each September underpins the 95.2% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. The company has followed this annual hardware cycle without interruption for more than a decade, supported by predictable supply-chain timelines for components like advanced chips and displays. Traders view this consistency as highly reliable, especially given ongoing development of features such as improved camera systems and software updates tied to the next iOS version. While realistic disruptions remain possible, including production delays from manufacturing issues or unexpected regulatory reviews in major markets, such events have rarely shifted Apple's overall yearly cadence in the past.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$104,780End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's longstanding practice of launching a new iPhone model each September underpins the 95.2% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. The company has followed this annual hardware cycle without interruption for more than a decade, supported by predictable supply-chain timelines for components like advanced chips and displays. Traders view this consistency as highly reliable, especially given ongoing development of features such as improved camera systems and software updates tied to the next iOS version. While realistic disruptions remain possible, including production delays from manufacturing issues or unexpected regulatory reviews in major markets, such events have rarely shifted Apple's overall yearly cadence in the past.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$104,780End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's longstanding practice of launching a new iPhone model each September underpins the 95.2% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. The company has followed this annual hardware cycle without interruption for more than a decade, supported by predictable supply-chain timelines for components like advanced chips and displays. Traders view this consistency as highly reliable, especially given ongoing development of features such as improved camera systems and software updates tied to the next iOS version. While realistic disruptions remain possible, including production delays from manufacturing issues or unexpected regulatory reviews in major markets, such events have rarely shifted Apple's overall yearly cadence in the past.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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