Apple’s decision to place Vision Pro development on ice and redirect engineers toward AI smart glasses expected in late 2027 has produced the market’s 96.5% consensus against a Vision Pro 2 launch before 2027. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and Ming-Chi Kuo both reported in May–June 2026 that the category requires a substantially lighter, lower-cost redesign that Apple is not actively pursuing, following the modest reception of the 2024 original and its 2025 M5 refresh. With only months remaining in 2026 and no active hardware program in place, a surprise release would require an abrupt reversal of resource allocation or an unforeseen technical breakthrough. Such shifts remain possible but lack supporting supply-chain or internal signals at present.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedApple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027?
Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027?
4% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
4% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s decision to place Vision Pro development on ice and redirect engineers toward AI smart glasses expected in late 2027 has produced the market’s 96.5% consensus against a Vision Pro 2 launch before 2027. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and Ming-Chi Kuo both reported in May–June 2026 that the category requires a substantially lighter, lower-cost redesign that Apple is not actively pursuing, following the modest reception of the 2024 original and its 2025 M5 refresh. With only months remaining in 2026 and no active hardware program in place, a surprise release would require an abrupt reversal of resource allocation or an unforeseen technical breakthrough. Such shifts remain possible but lack supporting supply-chain or internal signals at present.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$6,327End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s decision to place Vision Pro development on ice and redirect engineers toward AI smart glasses expected in late 2027 has produced the market’s 96.5% consensus against a Vision Pro 2 launch before 2027. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and Ming-Chi Kuo both reported in May–June 2026 that the category requires a substantially lighter, lower-cost redesign that Apple is not actively pursuing, following the modest reception of the 2024 original and its 2025 M5 refresh. With only months remaining in 2026 and no active hardware program in place, a surprise release would require an abrupt reversal of resource allocation or an unforeseen technical breakthrough. Such shifts remain possible but lack supporting supply-chain or internal signals at present.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,327End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s decision to place Vision Pro development on ice and redirect engineers toward AI smart glasses expected in late 2027 has produced the market’s 96.5% consensus against a Vision Pro 2 launch before 2027. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and Ming-Chi Kuo both reported in May–June 2026 that the category requires a substantially lighter, lower-cost redesign that Apple is not actively pursuing, following the modest reception of the 2024 original and its 2025 M5 refresh. With only months remaining in 2026 and no active hardware program in place, a surprise release would require an abrupt reversal of resource allocation or an unforeseen technical breakthrough. Such shifts remain possible but lack supporting supply-chain or internal signals at present.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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