Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors "No" at 91.5% implied probability for Apple releasing Vision Pro 2 before 2027, driven by reports from late 2025 that Apple paused development of a major mixed reality headset overhaul to prioritize Meta-like AI smart glasses. The original Vision Pro, refreshed in October 2025 with an M5 chip for better performance and battery life, continues to struggle with weak consumer adoption and sales, per recent analyses, eroding urgency for a full successor amid uncertain spatial computing demand. No credible leaks, supply chain signals, or official teasers have emerged in 2026 to suggest a pre-2027 launch. While an surprise announcement at WWDC or a fall event could shift odds, historical delays in Apple's headset roadmap make this unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
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Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors "No" at 91.5% implied probability for Apple releasing Vision Pro 2 before 2027, driven by reports from late 2025 that Apple paused development of a major mixed reality headset overhaul to prioritize Meta-like AI smart glasses. The original Vision Pro, refreshed in October 2025 with an M5 chip for better performance and battery life, continues to struggle with weak consumer adoption and sales, per recent analyses, eroding urgency for a full successor amid uncertain spatial computing demand. No credible leaks, supply chain signals, or official teasers have emerged in 2026 to suggest a pre-2027 launch. While an surprise announcement at WWDC or a fall event could shift odds, historical delays in Apple's headset roadmap make this unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$2,293End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors "No" at 91.5% implied probability for Apple releasing Vision Pro 2 before 2027, driven by reports from late 2025 that Apple paused development of a major mixed reality headset overhaul to prioritize Meta-like AI smart glasses. The original Vision Pro, refreshed in October 2025 with an M5 chip for better performance and battery life, continues to struggle with weak consumer adoption and sales, per recent analyses, eroding urgency for a full successor amid uncertain spatial computing demand. No credible leaks, supply chain signals, or official teasers have emerged in 2026 to suggest a pre-2027 launch. While an surprise announcement at WWDC or a fall event could shift odds, historical delays in Apple's headset roadmap make this unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,293End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors "No" at 91.5% implied probability for Apple releasing Vision Pro 2 before 2027, driven by reports from late 2025 that Apple paused development of a major mixed reality headset overhaul to prioritize Meta-like AI smart glasses. The original Vision Pro, refreshed in October 2025 with an M5 chip for better performance and battery life, continues to struggle with weak consumer adoption and sales, per recent analyses, eroding urgency for a full successor amid uncertain spatial computing demand. No credible leaks, supply chain signals, or official teasers have emerged in 2026 to suggest a pre-2027 launch. While an surprise announcement at WWDC or a fall event could shift odds, historical delays in Apple's headset roadmap make this unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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