Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, with 92% implied probability reflecting the absence of any official announcements, supply chain confirmations, or credible leaks signaling production ramp-up as of April 2026. Weak sales of the original Vision Pro—leading to slashed production—prompted Apple to pivot with an M5 chip upgrade in late 2025 rather than a full successor featuring redesigned lighter hardware and advanced displays. Earlier rumors of a fall 2025 or spring 2026 launch have faded amid reports of project pauses to prioritize cheaper "Vision Air" models or smart glasses for 2027. Upcoming WWDC in June or September events could shift sentiment via surprise teasers, though Apple's typical two-year hardware cycles and certification timelines make a late-2026 debut unlikely without accelerated manufacturing breakthroughs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
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Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, with 92% implied probability reflecting the absence of any official announcements, supply chain confirmations, or credible leaks signaling production ramp-up as of April 2026. Weak sales of the original Vision Pro—leading to slashed production—prompted Apple to pivot with an M5 chip upgrade in late 2025 rather than a full successor featuring redesigned lighter hardware and advanced displays. Earlier rumors of a fall 2025 or spring 2026 launch have faded amid reports of project pauses to prioritize cheaper "Vision Air" models or smart glasses for 2027. Upcoming WWDC in June or September events could shift sentiment via surprise teasers, though Apple's typical two-year hardware cycles and certification timelines make a late-2026 debut unlikely without accelerated manufacturing breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$2,293End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, with 92% implied probability reflecting the absence of any official announcements, supply chain confirmations, or credible leaks signaling production ramp-up as of April 2026. Weak sales of the original Vision Pro—leading to slashed production—prompted Apple to pivot with an M5 chip upgrade in late 2025 rather than a full successor featuring redesigned lighter hardware and advanced displays. Earlier rumors of a fall 2025 or spring 2026 launch have faded amid reports of project pauses to prioritize cheaper "Vision Air" models or smart glasses for 2027. Upcoming WWDC in June or September events could shift sentiment via surprise teasers, though Apple's typical two-year hardware cycles and certification timelines make a late-2026 debut unlikely without accelerated manufacturing breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,293End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no Apple Vision Pro 2 release before 2027, with 92% implied probability reflecting the absence of any official announcements, supply chain confirmations, or credible leaks signaling production ramp-up as of April 2026. Weak sales of the original Vision Pro—leading to slashed production—prompted Apple to pivot with an M5 chip upgrade in late 2025 rather than a full successor featuring redesigned lighter hardware and advanced displays. Earlier rumors of a fall 2025 or spring 2026 launch have faded amid reports of project pauses to prioritize cheaper "Vision Air" models or smart glasses for 2027. Upcoming WWDC in June or September events could shift sentiment via surprise teasers, though Apple's typical two-year hardware cycles and certification timelines make a late-2026 debut unlikely without accelerated manufacturing breakthroughs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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