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Tech·Big Tech

Next CEO of Apple?

Market icon
Tech·Big Tech

Next CEO of Apple?

John Ternus 36%

Greg Joswiak 9.8%

Sabih Khan 5%

Craig Federighi 2.9%

Polymarket

$676,282 Vol.

John Ternus 36%

Greg Joswiak 9.8%

Sabih Khan 5%

Craig Federighi 2.9%

Polymarket

$676,282 Vol.

John Ternus

$585,463 Vol.

36%

Greg Joswiak

$50,359 Vol.

9%

Sabih Khan

$8,252 Vol.

5%

Craig Federighi

$32,207 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the first individual who is officially announced as the next permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether the announced replacement actually becomes the next CEO of Apple. Interim CEOs will not qualify. If no permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source will be public statements from Apple Inc.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions John Ternus, Apple's senior vice president of Hardware Engineering, as the frontrunner at 35.5% implied probability for next CEO, propelled by Bloomberg's March 22 in-depth profile naming him Tim Cook's likely successor amid the company's 50th anniversary milestone. Ternus's expanded oversight of design teams since late 2025, reputation for reversing product quality declines, and leadership in bold AI wearables and smart home initiatives have solidified his internal heir apparent status, despite Cook dismissing imminent retirement rumors in mid-March. Greg Joswiak trails at 9.2% buoyed by recent joint interviews on MacBook advancements and spatial computing, while Sabih Khan (4.5%) and Craig Federighi (2.9%) reflect supply chain and software strengths but lack comparable momentum. Watch for WWDC announcements or earnings calls as potential catalysts.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who is officially announced as the next permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether the announced replacement actually becomes the next CEO of Apple.

Interim CEOs will not qualify.

If no permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source will be public statements from Apple Inc.
Volume
$676,282
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 3:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who is officially announced as the next permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether the announced replacement actually becomes the next CEO of Apple. Interim CEOs will not qualify. If no permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source will be public statements from Apple Inc.
This market will resolve according to the first individual who is officially announced as the next permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether the announced replacement actually becomes the next CEO of Apple. Interim CEOs will not qualify. If no permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source will be public statements from Apple Inc.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions John Ternus, Apple's senior vice president of Hardware Engineering, as the frontrunner at 35.5% implied probability for next CEO, propelled by Bloomberg's March 22 in-depth profile naming him Tim Cook's likely successor amid the company's 50th anniversary milestone. Ternus's expanded oversight of design teams since late 2025, reputation for reversing product quality declines, and leadership in bold AI wearables and smart home initiatives have solidified his internal heir apparent status, despite Cook dismissing imminent retirement rumors in mid-March. Greg Joswiak trails at 9.2% buoyed by recent joint interviews on MacBook advancements and spatial computing, while Sabih Khan (4.5%) and Craig Federighi (2.9%) reflect supply chain and software strengths but lack comparable momentum. Watch for WWDC announcements or earnings calls as potential catalysts.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who is officially announced as the next permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether the announced replacement actually becomes the next CEO of Apple.

Interim CEOs will not qualify.

If no permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source will be public statements from Apple Inc.
Volume
$676,282
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 3:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who is officially announced as the next permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether the announced replacement actually becomes the next CEO of Apple. Interim CEOs will not qualify. If no permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source will be public statements from Apple Inc.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next CEO of Apple?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "John Ternus" at 36%, followed by "Greg Joswiak" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 36¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next CEO of Apple?" has generated $676.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next CEO of Apple?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next CEO of Apple?" is "John Ternus" at 36%, meaning the market assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Greg Joswiak" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next CEO of Apple?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.