US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian missile sites, nuclear facilities, and military infrastructure continue unabated into late March 2026, now nearly a month since the conflict's escalation on February 28, with recent waves targeting Tehran and northeastern provinces as of March 27-28. Tehran rejected Washington's ceasefire proposal—termed "maximalist"—and issued counter-demands including sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, while Israel vows to intensify operations amid ongoing Iranian missile and drone retaliations against regional US bases and Israeli targets. This diplomatic impasse and daily military exchanges underpin trader consensus implying 95% odds of action persisting through March 31. Late-breaking negotiations, mutual de-escalation signals, or a sudden Iranian capitulation could shift dynamics, though current postures suggest prolonged engagement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMilitary action through March 31 96%
March 31 2.1%
March 30 1.4%
March 29 <1%
$2,732,784 Vol.
$2,732,784 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 29
1%
March 30
1%
March 31
2%
Military action through March 31
96%
Military action through March 31 96%
March 31 2.1%
March 30 1.4%
March 29 <1%
$2,732,784 Vol.
$2,732,784 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 29
$300,340 Vol.
1%
March 30
$287,757 Vol.
1%
March 31
$413,830 Vol.
2%
Military action through March 31
$583,000 Vol.
96%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian missile sites, nuclear facilities, and military infrastructure continue unabated into late March 2026, now nearly a month since the conflict's escalation on February 28, with recent waves targeting Tehran and northeastern provinces as of March 27-28. Tehran rejected Washington's ceasefire proposal—termed "maximalist"—and issued counter-demands including sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, while Israel vows to intensify operations amid ongoing Iranian missile and drone retaliations against regional US bases and Israeli targets. This diplomatic impasse and daily military exchanges underpin trader consensus implying 95% odds of action persisting through March 31. Late-breaking negotiations, mutual de-escalation signals, or a sudden Iranian capitulation could shift dynamics, though current postures suggest prolonged engagement.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$2,732,784End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian missile sites, nuclear facilities, and military infrastructure continue unabated into late March 2026, now nearly a month since the conflict's escalation on February 28, with recent waves targeting Tehran and northeastern provinces as of March 27-28. Tehran rejected Washington's ceasefire proposal—termed "maximalist"—and issued counter-demands including sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, while Israel vows to intensify operations amid ongoing Iranian missile and drone retaliations against regional US bases and Israeli targets. This diplomatic impasse and daily military exchanges underpin trader consensus implying 95% odds of action persisting through March 31. Late-breaking negotiations, mutual de-escalation signals, or a sudden Iranian capitulation could shift dynamics, though current postures suggest prolonged engagement.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,732,784End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian missile sites, nuclear facilities, and military infrastructure continue unabated into late March 2026, now nearly a month since the conflict's escalation on February 28, with recent waves targeting Tehran and northeastern provinces as of March 27-28. Tehran rejected Washington's ceasefire proposal—termed "maximalist"—and issued counter-demands including sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, while Israel vows to intensify operations amid ongoing Iranian missile and drone retaliations against regional US bases and Israeli targets. This diplomatic impasse and daily military exchanges underpin trader consensus implying 95% odds of action persisting through March 31. Late-breaking negotiations, mutual de-escalation signals, or a sudden Iranian capitulation could shift dynamics, though current postures suggest prolonged engagement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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