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Geopolitics·Israel

Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?

Market icon
Geopolitics·Israel

Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?

$44,284 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$44,284 Vol.

Polymarket

June 30

$0 Vol.

22%

December 31

$44,284 Vol.

40%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mahmoud Abbas ceases to be President of the Palestinian National Authority for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mahmoud Abbas's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian National Authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mahmoud Abbas has served as Palestinian Authority president since 2005, with his original four-year term expiring in 2009 amid Fatah-Hamas divisions that halted elections. Recent stability signals include his July 2024 appointment of a new cabinet under Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa, aimed at addressing governance amid the Gaza conflict's fallout. At age 88, unconfirmed health rumors and calls for reform from Arab states persist, but Abbas remains active diplomatically, including meetings with leaders like China's Xi Jinping. No successor is officially designated, though Hussein al-Sheikh holds key PLO roles; trader odds reflect low near-term exit probability absent a major health crisis, coup, or snap elections, with no polls or dates scheduled.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mahmoud Abbas ceases to be President of the Palestinian National Authority for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Mahmoud Abbas's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian National Authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$44,284
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 5, 2026, 5:58 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mahmoud Abbas ceases to be President of the Palestinian National Authority for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mahmoud Abbas's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian National Authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mahmoud Abbas has served as Palestinian Authority president since 2005, with his original four-year term expiring in 2009 amid Fatah-Hamas divisions that halted elections. Recent stability signals include his July 2024 appointment of a new cabinet under Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa, aimed at addressing governance amid the Gaza conflict's fallout. At age 88, unconfirmed health rumors and calls for reform from Arab states persist, but Abbas remains active diplomatically, including meetings with leaders like China's Xi Jinping. No successor is officially designated, though Hussein al-Sheikh holds key PLO roles; trader odds reflect low near-term exit probability absent a major health crisis, coup, or snap elections, with no polls or dates scheduled.

Mahmoud Abbas has served as Palestinian Authority president since 2005, with his original four-year term expiring in 2009 amid Fatah-Hamas divisions that halted elections. Recent stability signals include his July 2024 appointment of a new cabinet under Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa, aimed at addressing governance amid the Gaza conflict's fallout. At age 88, unconfirmed health rumors and calls for reform from Arab states persist, but Abbas remains active diplomatically, including meetings with leaders like China's Xi Jinping. No successor is officially designated, though Hussein al-Sheikh holds key PLO roles; trader odds reflect low near-term exit probability absent a major health crisis, coup, or snap elections, with no polls or dates scheduled.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 40%, followed by "June 30" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 40¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?" has generated $44.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?" is "December 31" at 40%, meaning the market assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 30" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.