Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before December?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$1,002,359 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has ceased all ground operations within and has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon between October 23 and November 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$1,002,359
End Date
Nov 30, 2024
Created At
Oct 25, 2024, 3:57 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has ceased all ground operations within and has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon between October 23 and November 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before December?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$1,002,359 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has ceased all ground operations within and has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon between October 23 and November 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$1,002,359
End Date
Nov 30, 2024
Created At
Oct 25, 2024, 3:57 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has ceased all ground operations within and has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon between October 23 and November 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.