Trader consensus reflects an 87.5% implied probability against President-elect Trump attempting to acquire part of Alberta, driven by the complete absence of official proposals, diplomatic overtures, or public statements on territorial expansion from Trump or his transition team. Recent focus has been Trump's December tariff threats on Canada citing border security, fentanyl flows, and trade deficits, eliciting pushback from Prime Minister Trudeau and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who emphasizes provincial energy independence amid federal tensions but rejects secession. Historical U.S.-Canada relations preclude such aggressive moves without major escalation, with traders pricing in Trump's priorities on executive orders for immigration and tariffs over improbable annexation schemes ahead of his January inauguration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNEW
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Dec 31, 2026
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NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the US federal government publicly announces that Trump or the United States is seeking to take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sovereignty or control refers to any attempt to bring part of the territory of Alberta under the legal governance and jurisdiction of the United States, including as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, or through an arrangement in which the US otherwise exercises governance and jurisdiction in the territory. Commercial agreements, trade deals, or other actions that do not seek formal US governance or jurisdiction over the territory will not count.
A qualifying announcement must directly state either ongoing direct efforts, or a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over a portion of the territory of Alberta (e.g. “We are going to take Alberta” or “We are trying to take Alberta” would count). Statements that express a desire to control Alberta, but do not express a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over Albertan territory (e.g. “We want Alberta,” or “We’re looking into purchasing Alberta”) will not count.
A consensus of credible reporting that the United States is undertaking ongoing direct efforts or negotiations to acquire, purchase, annex, or otherwise take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution sources will be official information from Donald Trump and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 87.5% implied probability against President-elect Trump attempting to acquire part of Alberta, driven by the complete absence of official proposals, diplomatic overtures, or public statements on territorial expansion from Trump or his transition team. Recent focus has been Trump's December tariff threats on Canada citing border security, fentanyl flows, and trade deficits, eliciting pushback from Prime Minister Trudeau and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who emphasizes provincial energy independence amid federal tensions but rejects secession. Historical U.S.-Canada relations preclude such aggressive moves without major escalation, with traders pricing in Trump's priorities on executive orders for immigration and tariffs over improbable annexation schemes ahead of his January inauguration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the US federal government publicly announces that Trump or the United States is seeking to take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sovereignty or control refers to any attempt to bring part of the territory of Alberta under the legal governance and jurisdiction of the United States, including as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, or through an arrangement in which the US otherwise exercises governance and jurisdiction in the territory. Commercial agreements, trade deals, or other actions that do not seek formal US governance or jurisdiction over the territory will not count.
A qualifying announcement must directly state either ongoing direct efforts, or a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over a portion of the territory of Alberta (e.g. “We are going to take Alberta” or “We are trying to take Alberta” would count). Statements that express a desire to control Alberta, but do not express a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over Albertan territory (e.g. “We want Alberta,” or “We’re looking into purchasing Alberta”) will not count.
A consensus of credible reporting that the United States is undertaking ongoing direct efforts or negotiations to acquire, purchase, annex, or otherwise take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution sources will be official information from Donald Trump and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sovereignty or control refers to any attempt to bring part of the territory of Alberta under the legal governance and jurisdiction of the United States, including as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, or through an arrangement in which the US otherwise exercises governance and jurisdiction in the territory. Commercial agreements, trade deals, or other actions that do not seek formal US governance or jurisdiction over the territory will not count.
A qualifying announcement must directly state either ongoing direct efforts, or a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over a portion of the territory of Alberta (e.g. “We are going to take Alberta” or “We are trying to take Alberta” would count). Statements that express a desire to control Alberta, but do not express a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over Albertan territory (e.g. “We want Alberta,” or “We’re looking into purchasing Alberta”) will not count.
A consensus of credible reporting that the United States is undertaking ongoing direct efforts or negotiations to acquire, purchase, annex, or otherwise take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution sources will be official information from Donald Trump and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 6, 2026, 5:59 PM ET
Volume
$1,517End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 5:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the US federal government publicly announces that Trump or the United States is seeking to take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sovereignty or control refers to any attempt to bring part of the territory of Alberta under the legal governance and jurisdiction of the United States, including as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, or through an arrangement in which the US otherwise exercises governance and jurisdiction in the territory. Commercial agreements, trade deals, or other actions that do not seek formal US governance or jurisdiction over the territory will not count.
A qualifying announcement must directly state either ongoing direct efforts, or a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over a portion of the territory of Alberta (e.g. “We are going to take Alberta” or “We are trying to take Alberta” would count). Statements that express a desire to control Alberta, but do not express a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over Albertan territory (e.g. “We want Alberta,” or “We’re looking into purchasing Alberta”) will not count.
A consensus of credible reporting that the United States is undertaking ongoing direct efforts or negotiations to acquire, purchase, annex, or otherwise take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution sources will be official information from Donald Trump and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 87.5% implied probability against President-elect Trump attempting to acquire part of Alberta, driven by the complete absence of official proposals, diplomatic overtures, or public statements on territorial expansion from Trump or his transition team. Recent focus has been Trump's December tariff threats on Canada citing border security, fentanyl flows, and trade deficits, eliciting pushback from Prime Minister Trudeau and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who emphasizes provincial energy independence amid federal tensions but rejects secession. Historical U.S.-Canada relations preclude such aggressive moves without major escalation, with traders pricing in Trump's priorities on executive orders for immigration and tariffs over improbable annexation schemes ahead of his January inauguration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the US federal government publicly announces that Trump or the United States is seeking to take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Sovereignty or control refers to any attempt to bring part of the territory of Alberta under the legal governance and jurisdiction of the United States, including as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, or through an arrangement in which the US otherwise exercises governance and jurisdiction in the territory. Commercial agreements, trade deals, or other actions that do not seek formal US governance or jurisdiction over the territory will not count.
A qualifying announcement must directly state either ongoing direct efforts, or a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over a portion of the territory of Alberta (e.g. “We are going to take Alberta” or “We are trying to take Alberta” would count). Statements that express a desire to control Alberta, but do not express a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over Albertan territory (e.g. “We want Alberta,” or “We’re looking into purchasing Alberta”) will not count.
A consensus of credible reporting that the United States is undertaking ongoing direct efforts or negotiations to acquire, purchase, annex, or otherwise take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution sources will be official information from Donald Trump and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sovereignty or control refers to any attempt to bring part of the territory of Alberta under the legal governance and jurisdiction of the United States, including as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, or through an arrangement in which the US otherwise exercises governance and jurisdiction in the territory. Commercial agreements, trade deals, or other actions that do not seek formal US governance or jurisdiction over the territory will not count.
A qualifying announcement must directly state either ongoing direct efforts, or a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over a portion of the territory of Alberta (e.g. “We are going to take Alberta” or “We are trying to take Alberta” would count). Statements that express a desire to control Alberta, but do not express a clear intent to engage in direct efforts to take sovereignty or control over Albertan territory (e.g. “We want Alberta,” or “We’re looking into purchasing Alberta”) will not count.
A consensus of credible reporting that the United States is undertaking ongoing direct efforts or negotiations to acquire, purchase, annex, or otherwise take sovereignty or control over any portion of the territory of Alberta will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution sources will be official information from Donald Trump and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,517End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 5:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 87.5% implied probability against President-elect Trump attempting to acquire part of Alberta, driven by the complete absence of official proposals, diplomatic overtures, or public statements on territorial expansion from Trump or his transition team. Recent focus has been Trump's December tariff threats on Canada citing border security, fentanyl flows, and trade deficits, eliciting pushback from Prime Minister Trudeau and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who emphasizes provincial energy independence amid federal tensions but rejects secession. Historical U.S.-Canada relations preclude such aggressive moves without major escalation, with traders pricing in Trump's priorities on executive orders for immigration and tariffs over improbable annexation schemes ahead of his January inauguration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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