Portugal Presidential Election

Name: Portugal Presidential Election
Start: 2025-08-29T19:18:28.935224Z
End: 2026-01-25T14:00:00Z

$96,617,456 Vol.

Jan 25, 2026

António José Seguro (IND) 37.9%

Luís Marques Mendes (PSD) 28%

João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL) 21.8%

Henrique Gouveia e Melo (IND) 8%

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

António José Seguro (IND)
$1,146,691 Vol.
38%

Luís Marques Mendes (PSD)
$1,837,092 Vol.
28%

João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL)
$1,304,511 Vol.
22%

Henrique Gouveia e Melo (IND)
$968,990 Vol.
8%

André Ventura (CH)
$3,811,252 Vol.
5%

Rui Moreira (IND)
$3,571,136 Vol.
<1%

Catarina Martins (BE)
$632,236 Vol.
<1%

Paulo Portas (CDS)
$1,130,639 Vol.
<1%

Tim Vieira (IND)
$326,795 Vol.
<1%

Joana Amaral Dias (ADN)
$4,451,690 Vol.
<1%

André Pestana (IND)
$1,861,881 Vol.
<1%

Orlando Cruz (IND)
$757,924 Vol.
<1%

Aristides Teixeira (IND)
$9,084,530 Vol.
<1%

Manuela Magno (IND)
$3,469,564 Vol.
<1%

Pedro Tinoco de Faria (IND)
$8,681,212 Vol.
<1%

Vitorino Silva (IND)
$4,125,708 Vol.
<1%

Ângela Maryah (IND)
$7,061,754 Vol.
<1%

António Filipe (PCP)
$6,596,756 Vol.
<1%

Raul Perestrello (IND)
$18,473,676 Vol.
<1%

José Cardoso (PLS)
$8,431,696 Vol.
<1%

Pedro Passos Coelho (PSD)
$3,852,727 Vol.
<1%

Jorge Pinto
$5,038,997 Vol.
<1%

Rules

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Created At: Aug 29, 2025, 7:00 PM UTC

Volume

$96,617,456

End Date

Jan 25, 2026

Created At

Aug 29, 2025, 7:00 PM UTC

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Beware of external links.

$96,617,456 Vol.

Jan 25, 2026

Portugal Presidential Election

António José Seguro (IND) 37.9%

Luís Marques Mendes (PSD) 28%

João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL) 21.8%

Henrique Gouveia e Melo (IND) 8%

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

António José Seguro (IND)

$1,146,691 Vol.

38%

Luís Marques Mendes (PSD)

$1,837,092 Vol.

28%

João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL)

$1,304,511 Vol.

22%

Henrique Gouveia e Melo (IND)

$968,990 Vol.

André Ventura (CH)

$3,811,252 Vol.

Rui Moreira (IND)

$3,571,136 Vol.

<1%

Catarina Martins (BE)

$632,236 Vol.

<1%

Paulo Portas (CDS)

$1,130,639 Vol.

<1%

Tim Vieira (IND)

$326,795 Vol.

<1%

Joana Amaral Dias (ADN)

$4,451,690 Vol.

<1%

André Pestana (IND)

$1,861,881 Vol.

<1%

Orlando Cruz (IND)

$757,924 Vol.

<1%

Aristides Teixeira (IND)

$9,084,530 Vol.

<1%

Manuela Magno (IND)

$3,469,564 Vol.

<1%

Pedro Tinoco de Faria (IND)

$8,681,212 Vol.

<1%

Vitorino Silva (IND)

$4,125,708 Vol.

<1%

Ângela Maryah (IND)

$7,061,754 Vol.

<1%

António Filipe (PCP)

$6,596,756 Vol.

<1%

Raul Perestrello (IND)

$18,473,676 Vol.

<1%

José Cardoso (PLS)

$8,431,696 Vol.

<1%

Pedro Passos Coelho (PSD)

$3,852,727 Vol.

<1%

Jorge Pinto

$5,038,997 Vol.

<1%

About

Volume

$96,617,456

End Date

Jan 25, 2026

Created At

Aug 29, 2025, 7:00 PM UTC

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

44%

Will André Ventura win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

26%

Will André Ventura qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

68%

Beware of external links.

Portugal Presidential Election

António José Seguro (IND)
$1,146,691 Vol.
38%

Luís Marques Mendes (PSD)
$1,837,092 Vol.
28%

João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL)
$1,304,511 Vol.
22%