Portugal Presidential Election

Name: Portugal Presidential Election
Start: 2025-08-29T19:18:28.935224Z
End: 2026-01-25T14:00:00Z

$21,051,379 Vol.

Jan 25, 2026

Luís Marques Mendes (PSD) 57%

Henrique Gouveia e Melo (IND) 25%

André Ventura (CH) 7.3%

António José Seguro (IND) 5.6%

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

Luís Marques Mendes (PSD)
$266,788 Vol.
57%
0123456789
%

Henrique Gouveia e Melo (IND)
$126,641 Vol.
25%
0123456789
%

André Ventura (CH)
$295,070 Vol.
7%
0123456789
%

António José Seguro (IND)
$109,689 Vol.
6%
0123456789
%

João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL)
$144,409 Vol.
5%
0123456789
%

Rui Moreira (IND)
$190,116 Vol.
<1%

Catarina Martins (BE)
$164,725 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Paulo Portas (CDS)
$83,928 Vol.
<1%

Tim Vieira (IND)
$157,097 Vol.
<1%

Joana Amaral Dias (ADN)
$98,655 Vol.
<1%

André Pestana (IND)
$1,443,149 Vol.
<1%

Orlando Cruz (IND)
$113,932 Vol.
<1%

Aristides Teixeira (IND)
$2,814,823 Vol.
<1%

Manuela Magno (IND)
$122,977 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Pedro Tinoco de Faria (IND)
$92,422 Vol.
<1%

Vitorino Silva (IND)
$94,121 Vol.
<1%

Ângela Maryah (IND)
$3,083,000 Vol.
<1%

António Filipe (PCP)
$2,027,637 Vol.
<1%

Raul Perestrello (IND)
$7,165,201 Vol.
<1%

José Cardoso (PLS)
$2,362,691 Vol.
<1%

Pedro Passos Coelho (PSD)
$81,084 Vol.
<1%

Jorge Pinto
$13,225 Vol.
<1%

Rules

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Created At: Aug 29, 2025, 7:00 PM

Volume

$21,051,379

End Date

Jan 25, 2026

Created At

Aug 29, 2025, 7:00 PM

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Beware of external links.

$21,051,379 Vol.

Jan 25, 2026

Portugal Presidential Election

Luís Marques Mendes (PSD) 57%

Henrique Gouveia e Melo (IND) 25%

André Ventura (CH) 7.3%

António José Seguro (IND) 5.6%

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

Luís Marques Mendes (PSD)

$266,788 Vol.

57%

Henrique Gouveia e Melo (IND)

$126,641 Vol.

25%

André Ventura (CH)

$295,070 Vol.

António José Seguro (IND)

$109,689 Vol.

João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL)

$144,409 Vol.

Rui Moreira (IND)

$190,116 Vol.

<1%

Catarina Martins (BE)

$164,725 Vol.

<1%

Paulo Portas (CDS)

$83,928 Vol.

<1%

Tim Vieira (IND)

$157,097 Vol.

<1%

Joana Amaral Dias (ADN)

$98,655 Vol.

<1%

André Pestana (IND)

$1,443,149 Vol.

<1%

Orlando Cruz (IND)

$113,932 Vol.

<1%

Aristides Teixeira (IND)

$2,814,823 Vol.

<1%

Manuela Magno (IND)

$122,977 Vol.

<1%

Pedro Tinoco de Faria (IND)

$92,422 Vol.

<1%

Vitorino Silva (IND)

$94,121 Vol.

<1%

Ângela Maryah (IND)

$3,083,000 Vol.

<1%

António Filipe (PCP)

$2,027,637 Vol.

<1%

Raul Perestrello (IND)

$7,165,201 Vol.

<1%

José Cardoso (PLS)

$2,362,691 Vol.

<1%

Pedro Passos Coelho (PSD)

$81,084 Vol.

<1%

Jorge Pinto

$13,225 Vol.

<1%

About

Volume

$21,051,379

End Date

Jan 25, 2026

Created At

Aug 29, 2025, 7:00 PM

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

45%

Will Luís Marques Mendes win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

31%

Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

71%

Portugal Presidential Election

Luís Marques Mendes (PSD)
$266,788 Vol.
57%
0123456789
%

Henrique Gouveia e Melo (IND)
$126,641 Vol.
25%
0123456789
%

André Ventura (CH)
$295,070 Vol.
7%
0123456789
%

António José Seguro (IND)
$109,689 Vol.
6%
0123456789
%