With the March 31, 2026, deadline now passed, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability of "No" as Iran made no public announcement agreeing to end all uranium enrichment activities, per market resolution criteria. This follows Iran's official rejection on March 26 of a U.S. 15-point proposal—delivered via Pakistan on March 24—that demanded dismantling its nuclear program, surrendering its near-440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, full IAEA access to sites like Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, and curbs on missiles and proxies. Ongoing Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including Arak and Ardakan last week, and IAEA verification gaps amid damaged infrastructure from 2025 U.S.-Israeli attacks further underscore stalled diplomacy. While a post-deadline reversal via surprise statement remains theoretically possible, no such developments have emerged, cementing high-confidence pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?
$2,219,193 Vol.
$2,219,193 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$2,219,193 Vol.
$2,219,193 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. With the March 31, 2026, deadline now passed, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability of "No" as Iran made no public announcement agreeing to end all uranium enrichment activities, per market resolution criteria. This follows Iran's official rejection on March 26 of a U.S. 15-point proposal—delivered via Pakistan on March 24—that demanded dismantling its nuclear program, surrendering its near-440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, full IAEA access to sites like Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, and curbs on missiles and proxies. Ongoing Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including Arak and Ardakan last week, and IAEA verification gaps amid damaged infrastructure from 2025 U.S.-Israeli attacks further underscore stalled diplomacy. While a post-deadline reversal via surprise statement remains theoretically possible, no such developments have emerged, cementing high-confidence pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:22 PM ET
Volume
$2,219,193End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. With the March 31, 2026, deadline now passed, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability of "No" as Iran made no public announcement agreeing to end all uranium enrichment activities, per market resolution criteria. This follows Iran's official rejection on March 26 of a U.S. 15-point proposal—delivered via Pakistan on March 24—that demanded dismantling its nuclear program, surrendering its near-440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, full IAEA access to sites like Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, and curbs on missiles and proxies. Ongoing Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including Arak and Ardakan last week, and IAEA verification gaps amid damaged infrastructure from 2025 U.S.-Israeli attacks further underscore stalled diplomacy. While a post-deadline reversal via surprise statement remains theoretically possible, no such developments have emerged, cementing high-confidence pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,219,193End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
With the March 31, 2026, deadline now passed, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability of "No" as Iran made no public announcement agreeing to end all uranium enrichment activities, per market resolution criteria. This follows Iran's official rejection on March 26 of a U.S. 15-point proposal—delivered via Pakistan on March 24—that demanded dismantling its nuclear program, surrendering its near-440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, full IAEA access to sites like Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, and curbs on missiles and proxies. Ongoing Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including Arak and Ardakan last week, and IAEA verification gaps amid damaged infrastructure from 2025 U.S.-Israeli attacks further underscore stalled diplomacy. While a post-deadline reversal via surprise statement remains theoretically possible, no such developments have emerged, cementing high-confidence pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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