Trader consensus prices fewer than 5 ships successfully targeted by Iran at 100%, driven by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes since the February 28 conflict onset that destroyed over 130 Iranian naval vessels—including 22 mine-laying boats—dismantled missile and drone production sites, and eliminated IRGC Navy leadership like commander Tangsiri. Early March saw limited strikes hitting around four commercial tankers and one container ship near the Strait of Hormuz, but capabilities collapsed thereafter amid Trump's declarations of Iran's neutralized naval threat. IRGC threats to close the strait on March 27 yielded no further verified hits, with Houthi proxies focusing on Israel instead. Late attributions of additional successes or revised counts could challenge this, though verification lags post-deadline diminish likelihood.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHow many ships will Iran successfully target by March 31?
How many ships will Iran successfully target by March 31?
<5 100.0%
5–7 <1%
8–10 <1%
11–13 <1%
$79,666 Vol.
$79,666 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5
Yes
5–7
No
8–10
No
11–13
No
14–16
No
17–19
No
20+
No
<5 100.0%
5–7 <1%
8–10 <1%
11–13 <1%
$79,666 Vol.
$79,666 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5
$29,975 Vol.
Yes
5–7
$8,692 Vol.
No
8–10
$8,864 Vol.
No
11–13
$5,287 Vol.
No
14–16
$7,653 Vol.
No
17–19
$3,176 Vol.
No
20+
$16,020 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices fewer than 5 ships successfully targeted by Iran at 100%, driven by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes since the February 28 conflict onset that destroyed over 130 Iranian naval vessels—including 22 mine-laying boats—dismantled missile and drone production sites, and eliminated IRGC Navy leadership like commander Tangsiri. Early March saw limited strikes hitting around four commercial tankers and one container ship near the Strait of Hormuz, but capabilities collapsed thereafter amid Trump's declarations of Iran's neutralized naval threat. IRGC threats to close the strait on March 27 yielded no further verified hits, with Houthi proxies focusing on Israel instead. Late attributions of additional successes or revised counts could challenge this, though verification lags post-deadline diminish likelihood.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 17, 2026, 5:41 PM ET
Volume
$79,666End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices fewer than 5 ships successfully targeted by Iran at 100%, driven by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes since the February 28 conflict onset that destroyed over 130 Iranian naval vessels—including 22 mine-laying boats—dismantled missile and drone production sites, and eliminated IRGC Navy leadership like commander Tangsiri. Early March saw limited strikes hitting around four commercial tankers and one container ship near the Strait of Hormuz, but capabilities collapsed thereafter amid Trump's declarations of Iran's neutralized naval threat. IRGC threats to close the strait on March 27 yielded no further verified hits, with Houthi proxies focusing on Israel instead. Late attributions of additional successes or revised counts could challenge this, though verification lags post-deadline diminish likelihood.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$79,666End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Trader consensus prices fewer than 5 ships successfully targeted by Iran at 100%, driven by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes since the February 28 conflict onset that destroyed over 130 Iranian naval vessels—including 22 mine-laying boats—dismantled missile and drone production sites, and eliminated IRGC Navy leadership like commander Tangsiri. Early March saw limited strikes hitting around four commercial tankers and one container ship near the Strait of Hormuz, but capabilities collapsed thereafter amid Trump's declarations of Iran's neutralized naval threat. IRGC threats to close the strait on March 27 yielded no further verified hits, with Houthi proxies focusing on Israel instead. Late attributions of additional successes or revised counts could challenge this, though verification lags post-deadline diminish likelihood.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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