Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 21°C in Shanghai on April 1 (99.9% implied probability), anchored by the China Meteorological Administration's latest forecast—issued March 29—projecting exactly this peak under building high pressure and clearing skies over eastern China. Ensemble models from ECMWF and GFS have converged tightly on this outcome after late-March warming trends displaced earlier 18–19°C clusters, consistent with Xujiahui Observatory's early April climatology of 18–20°C highs but elevated by reduced cloud cover and sea breeze moderation. While forecasts near resolution carry high confidence, realistic challenges include prolonged afternoon sunshine triggering urban heat effects for a 22°C reading or unexpected marine layer capping at 20°C; official station data release expected by evening will confirm.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 1?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 1?
21°C 99.9%
22°C <1%
20°C <1%
23°C <1%
$406,372 Vol.
$406,372 Vol.
Apr 1, 2026
20°C
<1%
21°C
100%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
21°C 99.9%
22°C <1%
20°C <1%
23°C <1%
$406,372 Vol.
$406,372 Vol.
Apr 1, 2026
20°C
$59,486 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$55,947 Vol.
100%
22°C
$42,048 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$31,016 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$27,946 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 21°C in Shanghai on April 1 (99.9% implied probability), anchored by the China Meteorological Administration's latest forecast—issued March 29—projecting exactly this peak under building high pressure and clearing skies over eastern China. Ensemble models from ECMWF and GFS have converged tightly on this outcome after late-March warming trends displaced earlier 18–19°C clusters, consistent with Xujiahui Observatory's early April climatology of 18–20°C highs but elevated by reduced cloud cover and sea breeze moderation. While forecasts near resolution carry high confidence, realistic challenges include prolonged afternoon sunshine triggering urban heat effects for a 22°C reading or unexpected marine layer capping at 20°C; official station data release expected by evening will confirm.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 5:09 PM ET
Volume
$406,372End Date
Apr 1, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 5:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 21°C in Shanghai on April 1 (99.9% implied probability), anchored by the China Meteorological Administration's latest forecast—issued March 29—projecting exactly this peak under building high pressure and clearing skies over eastern China. Ensemble models from ECMWF and GFS have converged tightly on this outcome after late-March warming trends displaced earlier 18–19°C clusters, consistent with Xujiahui Observatory's early April climatology of 18–20°C highs but elevated by reduced cloud cover and sea breeze moderation. While forecasts near resolution carry high confidence, realistic challenges include prolonged afternoon sunshine triggering urban heat effects for a 22°C reading or unexpected marine layer capping at 20°C; official station data release expected by evening will confirm.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$406,372End Date
Apr 1, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 5:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 21°C in Shanghai on April 1 (99.9% implied probability), anchored by the China Meteorological Administration's latest forecast—issued March 29—projecting exactly this peak under building high pressure and clearing skies over eastern China. Ensemble models from ECMWF and GFS have converged tightly on this outcome after late-March warming trends displaced earlier 18–19°C clusters, consistent with Xujiahui Observatory's early April climatology of 18–20°C highs but elevated by reduced cloud cover and sea breeze moderation. While forecasts near resolution carry high confidence, realistic challenges include prolonged afternoon sunshine triggering urban heat effects for a 22°C reading or unexpected marine layer capping at 20°C; official station data release expected by evening will confirm.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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