Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 70.5% implied probability of no Fed rate hike in 2026, driven primarily by persistent disinflation and a softening labor market that reinforce expectations for sustained policy easing. November CPI printed at 2.7% year-over-year—core at 3.3%—aligning with the Fed's 2% target trajectory, while the latest dot plot projects the fed funds rate declining to 2.9% by end-2026 from the current 4.25%-4.50% range. CME FedWatch Tool futures price negligible odds (<10%) of any increase, as terminal rate bets cluster around 3%. Key catalysts include the December 18 FOMC meeting—anticipated 25bps cut—and upcoming PCE inflation data, though post-election fiscal stimulus risks could test this dovish tilt if inflation reaccelerates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$463,360 Vol.
$463,360 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
$463,360 Vol.
$463,360 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$463,360End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$463,360End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 70.5% implied probability of no Fed rate hike in 2026, driven primarily by persistent disinflation and a softening labor market that reinforce expectations for sustained policy easing. November CPI printed at 2.7% year-over-year—core at 3.3%—aligning with the Fed's 2% target trajectory, while the latest dot plot projects the fed funds rate declining to 2.9% by end-2026 from the current 4.25%-4.50% range. CME FedWatch Tool futures price negligible odds (<10%) of any increase, as terminal rate bets cluster around 3%. Key catalysts include the December 18 FOMC meeting—anticipated 25bps cut—and upcoming PCE inflation data, though post-election fiscal stimulus risks could test this dovish tilt if inflation reaccelerates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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