Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 77.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to pause rate changes at the March, May, and June 2025 FOMC meetings, driven by resilient U.S. economic data signaling no urgency for cuts. November 2024 CPI printed at 2.7% year-over-year headline and 3.3% core, above the Fed's 2% target, while December nonfarm payrolls added 256,000 jobs against expectations of 160,000, keeping unemployment at 4.1%. Chair Powell's recent comments underscored a data-dependent stance amid cooling but sticky inflation, tempering early 2025 cut expectations versus CME FedWatch's slightly more dovish path. Upcoming January CPI (Jan. 15) and FOMC (Jan. 28-29) could shift sentiment, with secondary outcomes pricing modest cut risks later in the quarter.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedPause–Pause–Pause 78%
Pause–Pause–Cut 11%
Other 9.8%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$711,911 Vol.
$711,911 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
78%
Pause–Pause–Cut
11%
Other
10%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause 78%
Pause–Pause–Cut 11%
Other 9.8%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$711,911 Vol.
$711,911 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$18,492 Vol.
78%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$10,005 Vol.
11%
Other
$209,041 Vol.
10%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$129,282 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$345,090 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 77.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to pause rate changes at the March, May, and June 2025 FOMC meetings, driven by resilient U.S. economic data signaling no urgency for cuts. November 2024 CPI printed at 2.7% year-over-year headline and 3.3% core, above the Fed's 2% target, while December nonfarm payrolls added 256,000 jobs against expectations of 160,000, keeping unemployment at 4.1%. Chair Powell's recent comments underscored a data-dependent stance amid cooling but sticky inflation, tempering early 2025 cut expectations versus CME FedWatch's slightly more dovish path. Upcoming January CPI (Jan. 15) and FOMC (Jan. 28-29) could shift sentiment, with secondary outcomes pricing modest cut risks later in the quarter.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$711,911End Date
Jun 17, 2026Market Opened
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 77.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to pause rate changes at the March, May, and June 2025 FOMC meetings, driven by resilient U.S. economic data signaling no urgency for cuts. November 2024 CPI printed at 2.7% year-over-year headline and 3.3% core, above the Fed's 2% target, while December nonfarm payrolls added 256,000 jobs against expectations of 160,000, keeping unemployment at 4.1%. Chair Powell's recent comments underscored a data-dependent stance amid cooling but sticky inflation, tempering early 2025 cut expectations versus CME FedWatch's slightly more dovish path. Upcoming January CPI (Jan. 15) and FOMC (Jan. 28-29) could shift sentiment, with secondary outcomes pricing modest cut risks later in the quarter.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$711,911End Date
Jun 17, 2026Market Opened
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 77.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to pause rate changes at the March, May, and June 2025 FOMC meetings, driven by resilient U.S. economic data signaling no urgency for cuts. November 2024 CPI printed at 2.7% year-over-year headline and 3.3% core, above the Fed's 2% target, while December nonfarm payrolls added 256,000 jobs against expectations of 160,000, keeping unemployment at 4.1%. Chair Powell's recent comments underscored a data-dependent stance amid cooling but sticky inflation, tempering early 2025 cut expectations versus CME FedWatch's slightly more dovish path. Upcoming January CPI (Jan. 15) and FOMC (Jan. 28-29) could shift sentiment, with secondary outcomes pricing modest cut risks later in the quarter.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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