Polymarket traders assign a 97.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady interest rates across its January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings—Pause–Pause–Pause—reflecting the Fed's current policy stance at 3.50–3.75% following holds in late January and mid-March. This strong consensus stems from March's Summary of Economic Projections, which raised 2026 core PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7% amid sticky price pressures, paired with resilient labor markets (unemployment steady near 4.4%) and upward-revised GDP growth to 2.4%. Chair Powell emphasized no rate cuts without clearer disinflation progress, aligning market-implied odds with official guidance. Realistic challenges include unexpected labor weakening or sharper inflation declines ahead of the April 28–29 meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedFed decisions (Jan-Apr)
Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)
Pause–Pause–Pause 97.5%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.5%
Other 1.4%
$392,036 Vol.
$392,036 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
98%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause 97.5%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.5%
Other 1.4%
$392,036 Vol.
$392,036 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$48,586 Vol.
98%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$167,699 Vol.
1%
Other
$135,764 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders assign a 97.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady interest rates across its January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings—Pause–Pause–Pause—reflecting the Fed's current policy stance at 3.50–3.75% following holds in late January and mid-March. This strong consensus stems from March's Summary of Economic Projections, which raised 2026 core PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7% amid sticky price pressures, paired with resilient labor markets (unemployment steady near 4.4%) and upward-revised GDP growth to 2.4%. Chair Powell emphasized no rate cuts without clearer disinflation progress, aligning market-implied odds with official guidance. Realistic challenges include unexpected labor weakening or sharper inflation declines ahead of the April 28–29 meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ET
Volume
$392,036End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders assign a 97.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady interest rates across its January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings—Pause–Pause–Pause—reflecting the Fed's current policy stance at 3.50–3.75% following holds in late January and mid-March. This strong consensus stems from March's Summary of Economic Projections, which raised 2026 core PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7% amid sticky price pressures, paired with resilient labor markets (unemployment steady near 4.4%) and upward-revised GDP growth to 2.4%. Chair Powell emphasized no rate cuts without clearer disinflation progress, aligning market-implied odds with official guidance. Realistic challenges include unexpected labor weakening or sharper inflation declines ahead of the April 28–29 meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$392,036End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a 97.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady interest rates across its January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings—Pause–Pause–Pause—reflecting the Fed's current policy stance at 3.50–3.75% following holds in late January and mid-March. This strong consensus stems from March's Summary of Economic Projections, which raised 2026 core PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7% amid sticky price pressures, paired with resilient labor markets (unemployment steady near 4.4%) and upward-revised GDP growth to 2.4%. Chair Powell emphasized no rate cuts without clearer disinflation progress, aligning market-implied odds with official guidance. Realistic challenges include unexpected labor weakening or sharper inflation declines ahead of the April 28–29 meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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