Fed decision in December?
$251,060,070 Vol.
25 bps decrease 93%
No change 8%
50+ bps decrease <1%
25+ bps increase <1%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
50+ bps decrease
$84,718,070 Vol.
<1%
50+ bps decrease
$84,718,070 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$33,408,782 Vol.
93%
25 bps decrease
$33,408,782 Vol.
93%
No change
$28,557,267 Vol.
8%
No change
$28,557,267 Vol.
8%
25+ bps increase
$104,377,871 Vol.
<1%
25+ bps increase
$104,377,871 Vol.
<1%
Rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2025 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 9 - 10, 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2025 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 9 - 10, 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Created At: Jul 31, 2025, 7:44 PM
Volume
$251,060,070End Date
Dec 10, 2025Created At
Jul 31, 2025, 7:44 PMResolver
0x2F5e3684c...$251,060,070 Vol.
Fed decision in December?
25 bps decrease 93%
No change 8%
50+ bps decrease <1%
25+ bps increase <1%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
50+ bps decrease
$84,718,070 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$33,408,782 Vol.
93%
No change
$28,557,267 Vol.
8%
25+ bps increase
$104,377,871 Vol.
<1%
About
Volume
$251,060,070End Date
Dec 10, 2025Created At
Jul 31, 2025, 7:44 PMResolver
0x2F5e3684c...
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