Trader consensus heavily favors People Power Party candidate Shin Yong-han at 77.5% implied probability to win the Chungcheongbuk Province governor by-election on August 27, driven by his dominant position in recent polls and the province's conservative leanings as a PPP stronghold. A Realmeter survey last week showed Shin at 52% support versus Democratic Party rival Noh Yeong-min's 22%, a gap widened by Shin's strong primary win and endorsements from local party leaders amid the incumbent's resignation over an election law violation conviction. Trailing candidates like Song Ki-sub and Cho Gil-hyeong lag due to weaker name recognition and fragmented support. With campaigning underway, upcoming debates and early voting could influence the race, though no major shifts have emerged in the past 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedChungcheongbuk Province Governor Election Winner
Chungcheongbuk Province Governor Election Winner
Shin Yong-han 78%
Noh Yeong-min 15%
Song Ki-sub 4.8%
Cho Gil-hyeong 4.3%
Shin Yong-han
78%
Noh Yeong-min
15%
Song Ki-sub
5%
Cho Gil-hyeong
4%
Kim Young-hwan
3%
Yoon Hee-geun
2%
Lee Jong-bae
2%
Do Jong-hwan
2%
Shin Yong-han 78%
Noh Yeong-min 15%
Song Ki-sub 4.8%
Cho Gil-hyeong 4.3%
Shin Yong-han
78%
Noh Yeong-min
15%
Song Ki-sub
5%
Cho Gil-hyeong
4%
Kim Young-hwan
3%
Yoon Hee-geun
2%
Lee Jong-bae
2%
Do Jong-hwan
2%
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (https://www.nec.go.kr/).
Market Opened: Nov 18, 2025, 12:08 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors People Power Party candidate Shin Yong-han at 77.5% implied probability to win the Chungcheongbuk Province governor by-election on August 27, driven by his dominant position in recent polls and the province's conservative leanings as a PPP stronghold. A Realmeter survey last week showed Shin at 52% support versus Democratic Party rival Noh Yeong-min's 22%, a gap widened by Shin's strong primary win and endorsements from local party leaders amid the incumbent's resignation over an election law violation conviction. Trailing candidates like Song Ki-sub and Cho Gil-hyeong lag due to weaker name recognition and fragmented support. With campaigning underway, upcoming debates and early voting could influence the race, though no major shifts have emerged in the past 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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