Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 92% implied probability of a Bank of Russia key rate decrease at its upcoming April meeting, driven by the central bank's seventh consecutive 50 basis point cut to 15% on March 20 amid disinflation to 5.9% annualized as of mid-March and receding pro-inflation risks from one-off factors. Governor Nabiullina's statement highlighted slowing price growth and a balanced economy, aligning with the baseline forecast for 2026 average rates of 13.5-14.5%, signaling further monetary policy easing if trends hold. This strong positioning could face challenges from an unexpected March CPI rebound, renewed external shocks, or persistent wage pressures prompting a pause or no-change outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedBank of Russia decision in April?
Bank of Russia decision in April?
Decrease 92%
No Change 8%
Increase <1%
$30,406 Vol.
$30,406 Vol.
Decrease
92%
No Change
8%
Increase
<1%
Decrease 92%
No Change 8%
Increase <1%
$30,406 Vol.
$30,406 Vol.
Decrease
92%
No Change
8%
Increase
<1%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its April 24, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their April 24, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its April 24, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their April 24, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 92% implied probability of a Bank of Russia key rate decrease at its upcoming April meeting, driven by the central bank's seventh consecutive 50 basis point cut to 15% on March 20 amid disinflation to 5.9% annualized as of mid-March and receding pro-inflation risks from one-off factors. Governor Nabiullina's statement highlighted slowing price growth and a balanced economy, aligning with the baseline forecast for 2026 average rates of 13.5-14.5%, signaling further monetary policy easing if trends hold. This strong positioning could face challenges from an unexpected March CPI rebound, renewed external shocks, or persistent wage pressures prompting a pause or no-change outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions