Trader consensus gives the Democratic Party a commanding 93.5% implied probability in Ohio's 11th Congressional District House race, driven by the seat's entrenched D+28 Cook Partisan Voter Index—the 19th most Democratic nationwide—and incumbent Shontel Brown's dominant 78% victory in 2024 under predecessor maps. Ohio's redistricting in October 2025 preserved the Cleveland-area district's heavy Democratic lean, with 77% Biden support in 2024. Brown, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report, faces token primary challengers Sean Freeman and Ardelia Holmes ahead of the May 5, 2026, contest, backed by over $1 million cash-on-hand. Low-profile Republican primary hopefuls James Hemphill and Mike Kirchner pose scant threat. Late scandals, primary upsets, or national midterm waves could shift odds, but structural advantages dominate.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
94%
共和党
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$0 交易量
94%
共和党
$0 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus gives the Democratic Party a commanding 93.5% implied probability in Ohio's 11th Congressional District House race, driven by the seat's entrenched D+28 Cook Partisan Voter Index—the 19th most Democratic nationwide—and incumbent Shontel Brown's dominant 78% victory in 2024 under predecessor maps. Ohio's redistricting in October 2025 preserved the Cleveland-area district's heavy Democratic lean, with 77% Biden support in 2024. Brown, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report, faces token primary challengers Sean Freeman and Ardelia Holmes ahead of the May 5, 2026, contest, backed by over $1 million cash-on-hand. Low-profile Republican primary hopefuls James Hemphill and Mike Kirchner pose scant threat. Late scandals, primary upsets, or national midterm waves could shift odds, but structural advantages dominate.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus gives the Democratic Party a commanding 93.5% implied probability in Ohio's 11th Congressional District House race, driven by the seat's entrenched D+28 Cook Partisan Voter Index—the 19th most Democratic nationwide—and incumbent Shontel Brown's dominant 78% victory in 2024 under predecessor maps. Ohio's redistricting in October 2025 preserved the Cleveland-area district's heavy Democratic lean, with 77% Biden support in 2024. Brown, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report, faces token primary challengers Sean Freeman and Ardelia Holmes ahead of the May 5, 2026, contest, backed by over $1 million cash-on-hand. Low-profile Republican primary hopefuls James Hemphill and Mike Kirchner pose scant threat. Late scandals, primary upsets, or national midterm waves could shift odds, but structural advantages dominate.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus gives the Democratic Party a commanding 93.5% implied probability in Ohio's 11th Congressional District House race, driven by the seat's entrenched D+28 Cook Partisan Voter Index—the 19th most Democratic nationwide—and incumbent Shontel Brown's dominant 78% victory in 2024 under predecessor maps. Ohio's redistricting in October 2025 preserved the Cleveland-area district's heavy Democratic lean, with 77% Biden support in 2024. Brown, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report, faces token primary challengers Sean Freeman and Ardelia Holmes ahead of the May 5, 2026, contest, backed by over $1 million cash-on-hand. Low-profile Republican primary hopefuls James Hemphill and Mike Kirchner pose scant threat. Late scandals, primary upsets, or national midterm waves could shift odds, but structural advantages dominate.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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