Redistricting under Proposition 50 has shifted California's 1st Congressional District boundaries to incorporate Democratic-leaning areas such as Sonoma County and Santa Rosa while removing several Republican strongholds, establishing a clear partisan advantage for Democratic candidates in the November 2026 general election. The January 2026 death of longtime Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa triggered a special election cycle with its June primary and potential August runoff, but trader focus remains on the full-term contest where Democratic contenders including state Sen. Mike McGuire and Audrey Denney hold structural edges through registration advantages and fundraising. This environment has produced the current market consensus favoring the Democratic Party. A Republican victory would require substantial crossover support or unforeseen shifts in turnout patterns among key voting blocs in the revised district.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$22,046 交易量
$22,046 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
92%
共和党
5%
$22,046 交易量
$22,046 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$14,173 交易量
92%
共和党
$7,873 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 has shifted California's 1st Congressional District boundaries to incorporate Democratic-leaning areas such as Sonoma County and Santa Rosa while removing several Republican strongholds, establishing a clear partisan advantage for Democratic candidates in the November 2026 general election. The January 2026 death of longtime Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa triggered a special election cycle with its June primary and potential August runoff, but trader focus remains on the full-term contest where Democratic contenders including state Sen. Mike McGuire and Audrey Denney hold structural edges through registration advantages and fundraising. This environment has produced the current market consensus favoring the Democratic Party. A Republican victory would require substantial crossover support or unforeseen shifts in turnout patterns among key voting blocs in the revised district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$22,046结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 has shifted California's 1st Congressional District boundaries to incorporate Democratic-leaning areas such as Sonoma County and Santa Rosa while removing several Republican strongholds, establishing a clear partisan advantage for Democratic candidates in the November 2026 general election. The January 2026 death of longtime Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa triggered a special election cycle with its June primary and potential August runoff, but trader focus remains on the full-term contest where Democratic contenders including state Sen. Mike McGuire and Audrey Denney hold structural edges through registration advantages and fundraising. This environment has produced the current market consensus favoring the Democratic Party. A Republican victory would require substantial crossover support or unforeseen shifts in turnout patterns among key voting blocs in the revised district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$22,046结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under Proposition 50 has shifted California's 1st Congressional District boundaries to incorporate Democratic-leaning areas such as Sonoma County and Santa Rosa while removing several Republican strongholds, establishing a clear partisan advantage for Democratic candidates in the November 2026 general election. The January 2026 death of longtime Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa triggered a special election cycle with its June primary and potential August runoff, but trader focus remains on the full-term contest where Democratic contenders including state Sen. Mike McGuire and Audrey Denney hold structural edges through registration advantages and fundraising. This environment has produced the current market consensus favoring the Democratic Party. A Republican victory would require substantial crossover support or unforeseen shifts in turnout patterns among key voting blocs in the revised district.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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