California's newly redrawn 1st congressional district, altered by Proposition 50 in late 2025, now incorporates additional Democratic-leaning areas from prior maps, shifting the seat's partisan baseline and prompting analysts to rate it solid Democratic. This structural change, combined with the January 2026 death of longtime Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa, has aligned candidate recruitment and fundraising toward Democratic contenders such as Audrey Denney and Mike McGuire for the November general election. Trader consensus at these levels reflects the district's updated voter composition and historical performance under similar boundaries. A Republican victory would require an unusually strong statewide performance or significant shifts in turnout among key blocs, though the compressed timeline from the June primary leaves room for late developments to influence the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$22,046 交易量
$22,046 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
92%
共和党
6%
$22,046 交易量
$22,046 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$14,173 交易量
92%
共和党
$7,873 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's newly redrawn 1st congressional district, altered by Proposition 50 in late 2025, now incorporates additional Democratic-leaning areas from prior maps, shifting the seat's partisan baseline and prompting analysts to rate it solid Democratic. This structural change, combined with the January 2026 death of longtime Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa, has aligned candidate recruitment and fundraising toward Democratic contenders such as Audrey Denney and Mike McGuire for the November general election. Trader consensus at these levels reflects the district's updated voter composition and historical performance under similar boundaries. A Republican victory would require an unusually strong statewide performance or significant shifts in turnout among key blocs, though the compressed timeline from the June primary leaves room for late developments to influence the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$22,046结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's newly redrawn 1st congressional district, altered by Proposition 50 in late 2025, now incorporates additional Democratic-leaning areas from prior maps, shifting the seat's partisan baseline and prompting analysts to rate it solid Democratic. This structural change, combined with the January 2026 death of longtime Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa, has aligned candidate recruitment and fundraising toward Democratic contenders such as Audrey Denney and Mike McGuire for the November general election. Trader consensus at these levels reflects the district's updated voter composition and historical performance under similar boundaries. A Republican victory would require an unusually strong statewide performance or significant shifts in turnout among key blocs, though the compressed timeline from the June primary leaves room for late developments to influence the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$22,046结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's newly redrawn 1st congressional district, altered by Proposition 50 in late 2025, now incorporates additional Democratic-leaning areas from prior maps, shifting the seat's partisan baseline and prompting analysts to rate it solid Democratic. This structural change, combined with the January 2026 death of longtime Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa, has aligned candidate recruitment and fundraising toward Democratic contenders such as Audrey Denney and Mike McGuire for the November general election. Trader consensus at these levels reflects the district's updated voter composition and historical performance under similar boundaries. A Republican victory would require an unusually strong statewide performance or significant shifts in turnout among key blocs, though the compressed timeline from the June primary leaves room for late developments to influence the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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