Trader consensus prices a Democratic Party victory at 91.5% in California's 1st Congressional District special election, driven by the district's post-redistricting Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+7 and a strong Democratic field featuring state Sen. Mike McGuire and Audrey Denney, who nearly upset incumbent Doug LaMalfa in past cycles. Following LaMalfa's January death, Republican Assemblyman James Gallagher leads the GOP but faces turnout challenges in the June 2 top-two primary, where early ballot returns show Democrats surging ahead. The Aug. 4 runoff pits the top two finishers, with the district's Democratic lean and recent debates favoring Dem advancement and victory. GOP consolidation or a Democratic scandal could shift odds, though structural advantages persist.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$22,046 交易量
$22,046 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
92%
共和党
5%
$22,046 交易量
$22,046 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$14,173 交易量
92%
共和党
$7,873 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices a Democratic Party victory at 91.5% in California's 1st Congressional District special election, driven by the district's post-redistricting Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+7 and a strong Democratic field featuring state Sen. Mike McGuire and Audrey Denney, who nearly upset incumbent Doug LaMalfa in past cycles. Following LaMalfa's January death, Republican Assemblyman James Gallagher leads the GOP but faces turnout challenges in the June 2 top-two primary, where early ballot returns show Democrats surging ahead. The Aug. 4 runoff pits the top two finishers, with the district's Democratic lean and recent debates favoring Dem advancement and victory. GOP consolidation or a Democratic scandal could shift odds, though structural advantages persist.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$22,046结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices a Democratic Party victory at 91.5% in California's 1st Congressional District special election, driven by the district's post-redistricting Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+7 and a strong Democratic field featuring state Sen. Mike McGuire and Audrey Denney, who nearly upset incumbent Doug LaMalfa in past cycles. Following LaMalfa's January death, Republican Assemblyman James Gallagher leads the GOP but faces turnout challenges in the June 2 top-two primary, where early ballot returns show Democrats surging ahead. The Aug. 4 runoff pits the top two finishers, with the district's Democratic lean and recent debates favoring Dem advancement and victory. GOP consolidation or a Democratic scandal could shift odds, though structural advantages persist.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$22,046结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices a Democratic Party victory at 91.5% in California's 1st Congressional District special election, driven by the district's post-redistricting Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+7 and a strong Democratic field featuring state Sen. Mike McGuire and Audrey Denney, who nearly upset incumbent Doug LaMalfa in past cycles. Following LaMalfa's January death, Republican Assemblyman James Gallagher leads the GOP but faces turnout challenges in the June 2 top-two primary, where early ballot returns show Democrats surging ahead. The Aug. 4 runoff pits the top two finishers, with the district's Democratic lean and recent debates favoring Dem advancement and victory. GOP consolidation or a Democratic scandal could shift odds, though structural advantages persist.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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