Long-serving Democratic incumbent Rep. Jim McGovern's unchallenged dominance in solidly blue MA-02 drives trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic Party, reflecting the district's strong partisan lean and his history of lopsided victories, including over 70% in 2024. No notable developments have occurred in the past 30 days—no candidate announcements, primaries pending until September 1, or polling shifts—to alter this positioning, with forecasters like Cook Political Report rating it Solid Democratic absent a GOP recruit. While odds exceed 90%, late-breaking scenarios such as a McGovern scandal, health event, or overwhelming national Republican midterm wave could challenge the outcome before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
94%
共和党
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$0 交易量
94%
共和党
$0 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Long-serving Democratic incumbent Rep. Jim McGovern's unchallenged dominance in solidly blue MA-02 drives trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic Party, reflecting the district's strong partisan lean and his history of lopsided victories, including over 70% in 2024. No notable developments have occurred in the past 30 days—no candidate announcements, primaries pending until September 1, or polling shifts—to alter this positioning, with forecasters like Cook Political Report rating it Solid Democratic absent a GOP recruit. While odds exceed 90%, late-breaking scenarios such as a McGovern scandal, health event, or overwhelming national Republican midterm wave could challenge the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Long-serving Democratic incumbent Rep. Jim McGovern's unchallenged dominance in solidly blue MA-02 drives trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic Party, reflecting the district's strong partisan lean and his history of lopsided victories, including over 70% in 2024. No notable developments have occurred in the past 30 days—no candidate announcements, primaries pending until September 1, or polling shifts—to alter this positioning, with forecasters like Cook Political Report rating it Solid Democratic absent a GOP recruit. While odds exceed 90%, late-breaking scenarios such as a McGovern scandal, health event, or overwhelming national Republican midterm wave could challenge the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Long-serving Democratic incumbent Rep. Jim McGovern's unchallenged dominance in solidly blue MA-02 drives trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic Party, reflecting the district's strong partisan lean and his history of lopsided victories, including over 70% in 2024. No notable developments have occurred in the past 30 days—no candidate announcements, primaries pending until September 1, or polling shifts—to alter this positioning, with forecasters like Cook Political Report rating it Solid Democratic absent a GOP recruit. While odds exceed 90%, late-breaking scenarios such as a McGovern scandal, health event, or overwhelming national Republican midterm wave could challenge the outcome before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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