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Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
22%
chance
Yes
No
$12m Vol.
US strikes Iran by...?
January 11
3%
January 12
7%
$7m Vol.
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
34%
$6m Vol.
US/Israel strikes Iran by...?
4%
8%
$1m Vol.
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?
15%
$2m Vol.
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
42%
$3m Vol.
Will Khamenei leave Iran by...?
January 16
January 31
13%
$4m Vol.
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
14%
$785k Vol.
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
59%
$932k Vol.
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
48%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
51%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
29%
$960k Vol.
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
55%
$898k Vol.
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31?
1%
$657k Vol.
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
9%
June 30
36%
$222k Vol.
Odds of Khamenei out by January 31 over 30% on Sunday?
$99k Vol.
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
38%
$420k Vol.
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by...?
March 31, 2026
56%
June 30, 2026
66%
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei
53%
$194k Vol.
Odds of Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31 over 50% by January 16?
12%
$80k Vol.
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