Persistent Houthi threats, including a declared naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels and recent strikes on Red Sea ports and tankers, have kept daily transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at subdued levels near 20 vessels. This reflects elevated war-risk premiums, rerouting incentives around the Cape of Good Hope, and selective safe-passage arrangements that exclude most commercial traffic. Trader consensus pricing the sub-180 outcome at 99.6% implied probability aligns with Kpler-tracked data showing volumes well below pre-2026 norms. A durable regional de-escalation or verified cessation of attacks could support a rebound, though near-term resolution appears limited by ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 3?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 3?
<180 99.6%
180-199 <1%
200-219 <1%
220+ <1%
$21,152 Vol.
$21,152 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
<180
Yes
180-199
No
200-219
No
220+
No
<180 99.6%
180-199 <1%
200-219 <1%
220+ <1%
$21,152 Vol.
$21,152 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
<180
$10,840 Vol.
Yes
180-199
$4,375 Vol.
No
200-219
$3,734 Vol.
No
220+
$2,203 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Persistent Houthi threats, including a declared naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels and recent strikes on Red Sea ports and tankers, have kept daily transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at subdued levels near 20 vessels. This reflects elevated war-risk premiums, rerouting incentives around the Cape of Good Hope, and selective safe-passage arrangements that exclude most commercial traffic. Trader consensus pricing the sub-180 outcome at 99.6% implied probability aligns with Kpler-tracked data showing volumes well below pre-2026 norms. A durable regional de-escalation or verified cessation of attacks could support a rebound, though near-term resolution appears limited by ongoing geopolitical tensions.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ET
Volume
$21,152End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Persistent Houthi threats, including a declared naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels and recent strikes on Red Sea ports and tankers, have kept daily transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at subdued levels near 20 vessels. This reflects elevated war-risk premiums, rerouting incentives around the Cape of Good Hope, and selective safe-passage arrangements that exclude most commercial traffic. Trader consensus pricing the sub-180 outcome at 99.6% implied probability aligns with Kpler-tracked data showing volumes well below pre-2026 norms. A durable regional de-escalation or verified cessation of attacks could support a rebound, though near-term resolution appears limited by ongoing geopolitical tensions.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$21,152End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Persistent Houthi threats, including a declared naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels and recent strikes on Red Sea ports and tankers, have kept daily transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at subdued levels near 20 vessels. This reflects elevated war-risk premiums, rerouting incentives around the Cape of Good Hope, and selective safe-passage arrangements that exclude most commercial traffic. Trader consensus pricing the sub-180 outcome at 99.6% implied probability aligns with Kpler-tracked data showing volumes well below pre-2026 norms. A durable regional de-escalation or verified cessation of attacks could support a rebound, though near-term resolution appears limited by ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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