Iranian forces have conducted multiple strikes on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf during the ongoing 2026 conflict, including a July 11 attack that disabled a Cyprus-flagged container ship and prompted Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to declare the waterway closed. These actions followed earlier projectile hits on tankers and containerships documented throughout March–May, often involving missiles or unidentified munitions amid U.S. naval blockades and retaliatory strikes on Iranian targets. Trader assessments reflect the pattern of repeated Iranian attempts to disrupt shipping lanes, combined with proxy involvement such as Houthi threats in the Red Sea, while U.S. Central Command responses and any de-escalation signals from diplomatic channels remain key variables that could alter the frequency or success of future targeting within the market’s resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran successfully targets shipping by...?
Iran successfully targets shipping by...?
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
August 9
34%
August 16
48%
August 31
73%
September 30
88%
$0.00 Vol.
August 9
$0 Vol.
34%
August 16
$0 Vol.
48%
August 31
$0 Vol.
73%
September 30
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".Iranian forces have conducted multiple strikes on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf during the ongoing 2026 conflict, including a July 11 attack that disabled a Cyprus-flagged container ship and prompted Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to declare the waterway closed. These actions followed earlier projectile hits on tankers and containerships documented throughout March–May, often involving missiles or unidentified munitions amid U.S. naval blockades and retaliatory strikes on Iranian targets. Trader assessments reflect the pattern of repeated Iranian attempts to disrupt shipping lanes, combined with proxy involvement such as Houthi threats in the Red Sea, while U.S. Central Command responses and any de-escalation signals from diplomatic channels remain key variables that could alter the frequency or success of future targeting within the market’s resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Aug 3, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".Iranian forces have conducted multiple strikes on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf during the ongoing 2026 conflict, including a July 11 attack that disabled a Cyprus-flagged container ship and prompted Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to declare the waterway closed. These actions followed earlier projectile hits on tankers and containerships documented throughout March–May, often involving missiles or unidentified munitions amid U.S. naval blockades and retaliatory strikes on Iranian targets. Trader assessments reflect the pattern of repeated Iranian attempts to disrupt shipping lanes, combined with proxy involvement such as Houthi threats in the Red Sea, while U.S. Central Command responses and any de-escalation signals from diplomatic channels remain key variables that could alter the frequency or success of future targeting within the market’s resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iranian forces have conducted multiple strikes on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf during the ongoing 2026 conflict, including a July 11 attack that disabled a Cyprus-flagged container ship and prompted Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to declare the waterway closed. These actions followed earlier projectile hits on tankers and containerships documented throughout March–May, often involving missiles or unidentified munitions amid U.S. naval blockades and retaliatory strikes on Iranian targets. Trader assessments reflect the pattern of repeated Iranian attempts to disrupt shipping lanes, combined with proxy involvement such as Houthi threats in the Red Sea, while U.S. Central Command responses and any de-escalation signals from diplomatic channels remain key variables that could alter the frequency or success of future targeting within the market’s resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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