Ongoing US-Iran military confrontations over the Strait of Hormuz have intensified focus on Farsi Island, a key IRGC naval outpost in the Persian Gulf. Iranian forces have asserted expanded operational control in the waterway since early 2026, prompting US Central Command strikes on nearby maritime targets including Greater Tunb, Larak, Qeshm, and related coastal facilities through July. Discussions of potential seizures of Iranian-held islands by US or GCC forces to reopen shipping lanes and challenge blockades have surfaced in reporting, alongside competing claims of sovereignty. These developments, coupled with ongoing naval escorts, aerial campaigns, and diplomatic statements rejecting Iranian tolls or restrictions, shape trader assessments of shifts in effective control before any specified resolution date. Further strikes, ground operations, or negotiated ceasefires remain the main variables that could alter the situation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFarsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$170,312 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
$170,312 Vol.
August 31
$161,420 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military confrontations over the Strait of Hormuz have intensified focus on Farsi Island, a key IRGC naval outpost in the Persian Gulf. Iranian forces have asserted expanded operational control in the waterway since early 2026, prompting US Central Command strikes on nearby maritime targets including Greater Tunb, Larak, Qeshm, and related coastal facilities through July. Discussions of potential seizures of Iranian-held islands by US or GCC forces to reopen shipping lanes and challenge blockades have surfaced in reporting, alongside competing claims of sovereignty. These developments, coupled with ongoing naval escorts, aerial campaigns, and diplomatic statements rejecting Iranian tolls or restrictions, shape trader assessments of shifts in effective control before any specified resolution date. Further strikes, ground operations, or negotiated ceasefires remain the main variables that could alter the situation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
Volume
$170,312End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military confrontations over the Strait of Hormuz have intensified focus on Farsi Island, a key IRGC naval outpost in the Persian Gulf. Iranian forces have asserted expanded operational control in the waterway since early 2026, prompting US Central Command strikes on nearby maritime targets including Greater Tunb, Larak, Qeshm, and related coastal facilities through July. Discussions of potential seizures of Iranian-held islands by US or GCC forces to reopen shipping lanes and challenge blockades have surfaced in reporting, alongside competing claims of sovereignty. These developments, coupled with ongoing naval escorts, aerial campaigns, and diplomatic statements rejecting Iranian tolls or restrictions, shape trader assessments of shifts in effective control before any specified resolution date. Further strikes, ground operations, or negotiated ceasefires remain the main variables that could alter the situation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$170,312End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran military confrontations over the Strait of Hormuz have intensified focus on Farsi Island, a key IRGC naval outpost in the Persian Gulf. Iranian forces have asserted expanded operational control in the waterway since early 2026, prompting US Central Command strikes on nearby maritime targets including Greater Tunb, Larak, Qeshm, and related coastal facilities through July. Discussions of potential seizures of Iranian-held islands by US or GCC forces to reopen shipping lanes and challenge blockades have surfaced in reporting, alongside competing claims of sovereignty. These developments, coupled with ongoing naval escorts, aerial campaigns, and diplomatic statements rejecting Iranian tolls or restrictions, shape trader assessments of shifts in effective control before any specified resolution date. Further strikes, ground operations, or negotiated ceasefires remain the main variables that could alter the situation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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