Geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran's Persian Gulf islands, particularly Kharg as the primary terminal handling roughly 90% of its crude exports, have shaped trader sentiment amid the 2026 US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. US strikes on Kharg military sites in March, followed by President Trump's June statements threatening to seize the island and assume control of Iranian oil infrastructure, heightened risks to global supply flows representing about one-fifth of seaborne oil trade. These developments drove oil price volatility and reinforced market-implied odds reflecting low near-term likelihood of territorial control shifts, given the April ceasefire and ongoing negotiations. Traders monitor Iranian defense reinforcements, potential FOMC-related risk appetite shifts, and any escalation signals tied to Hormuz access for updated probability assessments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$91,127 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
2%
September 30
7%
$91,127 Vol.
August 31
$23,380 Vol.
2%
September 30
$67,747 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran's Persian Gulf islands, particularly Kharg as the primary terminal handling roughly 90% of its crude exports, have shaped trader sentiment amid the 2026 US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. US strikes on Kharg military sites in March, followed by President Trump's June statements threatening to seize the island and assume control of Iranian oil infrastructure, heightened risks to global supply flows representing about one-fifth of seaborne oil trade. These developments drove oil price volatility and reinforced market-implied odds reflecting low near-term likelihood of territorial control shifts, given the April ceasefire and ongoing negotiations. Traders monitor Iranian defense reinforcements, potential FOMC-related risk appetite shifts, and any escalation signals tied to Hormuz access for updated probability assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$91,127End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran's Persian Gulf islands, particularly Kharg as the primary terminal handling roughly 90% of its crude exports, have shaped trader sentiment amid the 2026 US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. US strikes on Kharg military sites in March, followed by President Trump's June statements threatening to seize the island and assume control of Iranian oil infrastructure, heightened risks to global supply flows representing about one-fifth of seaborne oil trade. These developments drove oil price volatility and reinforced market-implied odds reflecting low near-term likelihood of territorial control shifts, given the April ceasefire and ongoing negotiations. Traders monitor Iranian defense reinforcements, potential FOMC-related risk appetite shifts, and any escalation signals tied to Hormuz access for updated probability assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$91,127End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran's Persian Gulf islands, particularly Kharg as the primary terminal handling roughly 90% of its crude exports, have shaped trader sentiment amid the 2026 US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. US strikes on Kharg military sites in March, followed by President Trump's June statements threatening to seize the island and assume control of Iranian oil infrastructure, heightened risks to global supply flows representing about one-fifth of seaborne oil trade. These developments drove oil price volatility and reinforced market-implied odds reflecting low near-term likelihood of territorial control shifts, given the April ceasefire and ongoing negotiations. Traders monitor Iranian defense reinforcements, potential FOMC-related risk appetite shifts, and any escalation signals tied to Hormuz access for updated probability assessments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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