Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

17%

December 31

$23M Vol.

$224K today

$1M Liq.

829

Ends in 9 months

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?

65%

2

$108K Vol.

$35.4K Liq.

Ends in 3 days

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?

83%

8+

$2M Vol.

$58.0K Liq.

22

Ends in 3 months

Measles cases in U.S. by April 30?

Measles cases in U.S. by April 30?

95%

1800

$74.6K Vol.

$22.4K Liq.

Ends in 28 days

Human moon landing in 2026?

Human moon landing in 2026?

5%

$2M Vol.

$34.9K Liq.

26

Ends in 9 months

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

90%

SpaceX

$2M Vol.

$268K Liq.

9

Ends in 9 months

How many Tornadoes in the US in March?

How many Tornadoes in the US in March?

100%

150+

$180K Vol.

$23.3K Liq.

Ends in 8 days

March 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

March 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

65%

1.25–1.29ºC

$224K Vol.

$15.6K Liq.

Ends in 8 days

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

31%

14–16

$1M Vol.

$23.1K Liq.

Ends in 9 months

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Strikes)

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Strikes)

45%

2.0T+

$661K Vol.

$97.4K Liq.

8

Ends in over 1 year

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

46%

2

$2M Vol.

$117K Liq.

17

Ends in 9 months

Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?

Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?

94%

80–85

$13.6K Vol.

$4.1K Liq.

Ends in about 18 hours

2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

2026 March 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

99%

4th or lower

$279K Vol.

$20.3K Liq.

Ends in 8 days

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

98%

↑2k

$7M Vol.

$41.8K Liq.

Ends in 9 months

Natural Disaster in 2026?

Natural Disaster in 2026?

30%

$191K Vol.

$16.8K Liq.

6

Ends in 9 months

Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

7%

$154K Vol.

$15.4K Liq.

41

Ends in 9 months

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

61%

Super Heavy booster explodes?

$1M Vol.

$20.1K Liq.

36

2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

42%

3rd hottest

$3.2K Vol.

$6.8K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?

57%

Hong Wang

$369K Vol.

$9.7K Liq.

Ends in 4 months

How many SpaceX launches in April?

How many SpaceX launches in April?

54%

13

$16.1K Vol.

$8.1K Liq.

Ends in 28 days

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Science.

Polymarket currently hosts 168 active markets for Science that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $43.0M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Natural Disaster in 2026?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 17% chance to December 31. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Science predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.